Human Health Impacts of Energy Transitions across the United States among Sociodemographic Subpopulations for the Year 2050

Abstract

Strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions may provide health benefits through improved air quality, yet these benefits might not be equitably distributed. Understanding these cobenefits and who receives them can aid policymakers in prioritizing mitigation strategies. We investigated four future energy scenarios (port electrification, electric vehicles, natural gas, energy efficiency) and a business-as-usual scenario to determine how changes to ambient fine particle (PM<inf>2.5</inf>) levels impact health within the contiguous United States (U.S.) by region, race/ethnicity, urbanicity, and income. We also investigated how methodological assumptions affect findings. Our projections of avoided mortalities from energy transition policies range from 67,011 (95% CI: 45,692, 82,397) to 81,003 (55,286, 99,532) in 2050. The monetized health benefits from avoided mortalities and hospitalizations range from $785.8 billion to $949.9 billion/year. These benefits vary by region and subpopulation, with Black, suburban, and less wealthy Americans experiencing higher percent avoided mortality across scenarios. Results were sensitive to assumptions for future concentration-response functions relating pollution levels to health, baseline incidence rates, and population projections. Our findings indicate energy policies transitioning from fossil fuel production in the U.S. provide substantial health and economic benefits that vary across populations and help reduce environmental health inequities in exposure and associated morality.