Urban environment dynamics and low carbon society: Multi-criteria decision analysis modeling for policy makers

Abstract

The aim of achieving stable economic growth and development deter the pathways of being a low carbon society in developing countries. Nonetheless, it is imperative to understand and analyze the long-term goals of such societies to upgrade and redirect priorities towards the low-carbon structure. Therefore, this study is carried by applying a novel multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) approach and the Bilan Carbone model to examine the different possibilities for cost/benefit analysis from direct reductions in carbon emission levels in the Lahore Metropolitan Area (LMA) of Pakistan. The LMA is a metropolitan city in the developing country and is marked with a huge spike in energy demands and carbon emissions due to increasing population. Three scenarios including one current (2010), and two future (business as usual—2050BaU and low carbon scenario—2050LCS), were developed. Our findings show no evidence of renewable energy use—such as solar, wind, and biomass—in the current energy mix of LMA. Furthermore, an increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from 3.5 in 2010 to 14 million tonnes (mt) in 2050 is found. Mitigation potential analysis of different sectors showed that the industrial sector of the city has the biggest mitigation capacity (13%) until the year 2050, whereas, the smallest proportion may come from the commercial sector (4%). The carbon emissions in LMA would be reduced as much as 50% as compared to the BaU scenario until 2050. Moreover, this mitigation potential study would also serve as a ripple effect in the data deficient cities of low-income countries.