Acute variceal bleeding portends poor outcomes in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure: a propensity score matched study from the APASL ACLF Research Consortium (AARC)

Abstract

<p>Background and aims Limited data exist regarding outcomes of acute variceal bleeding (AVB) in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), especially in those with hepatic failure. We evaluated the outcomes of AVB in patients with ACLF in a multinational cohort of APASL ACLF Research Consortium (AARC). Methods Prospectively maintained data from AARC database on patients with ACLF who developed AVB (ACLF-AVB) was analysed. This data included demographic profile, severity of liver disease, and rebleeding and mortality in 6 weeks. These outcomes were compared with a propensity score matched (PSM) cohort of ACLF matched for severity of liver disease (MELD, AARC score) without AVB (ACLF without AVB). Results Of the 4434 ACLF patients, the outcomes in ACLF-AVB (n = 72) [mean age-46 +/- 10.4 years, 93% males, 66% with alcoholic liver disease, 65% with alcoholic hepatitis, AARC score: 10.1 +/- 2.2, MELD score: 34 (IQR: 27-40)] were compared with a PSM cohort selected in a ratio of 1:2 (n = 143) [mean age-44.9 +/- 12.5 years, 82.5% males, 48% alcoholic liver disease, 55.7% alcoholic hepatitis, AARC score: 9.4 +/- 1.5, MELD score: 32 (IQR: 24-40)] of ACLF-without AVB. Despite PSM, ACLF patients with AVB had a higher baseline HVPG than without AVB (25.00 [IQR: 23.00-28.00] vs. 17.00 [15.00-21.75] mmHg; p = 0.045). The 6-week mortality in ACLF patients with or without AVB was 70.8% and 53.8%, respectively (p = 0.025). The 6-week rebleeding rate was 23% in ACLF-AVB. Presence of ascites [hazard ratio (HR) 2.2 (95% CI 1.03-9.8), p = 0.026], AVB [HR 1.9 (95% CI 1.2-2.5, p = 0.03)], and MELD score [HR 1.7 (95% CI 1.1-2.1), p = 0.001] independently predicted mortality in the overall ACLF cohort. Conclusion Development of AVB confers poor outcomes in patients with ACLF with a high 6-week mortality. Elevated HVPG at baseline represents a potential risk factor for future AVB in ACLF.<br></p>