Drought and Flood Characterization and Connection to Climate Variability in the Pearl River Basin in Southern China Using Long-Term GRACE and Reanalysis Data

Abstract

Drought and flood are investigated in the Pearl River basin (PRB) using long-term terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA) data from the mascon (mass concentration) solutions based on Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite measurements (2002–19) and reanalysis data (1980–2019). The GRACE mascon solutions capture two major drought periods (2003–06 and 2009–12) with similar onsets and endings over the last two decades, but show considerable differences in quantifying total drought severity. The reanalysis data significantly overestimate drought duration and severity during 1980–2000 owing to overestimated negative TWSA forced by underestimated precipitation. The GRACE mascon solutions identify four major flood events in August 2002, June 2008, and July in 2006 and 2019. The flood potential is influenced by the precipitation in both the current and antecedent months. The flood potential index of the most recent flood in 2008 showed a similar spatial pattern compared to precipitation at monthly and subbasin scales. The precipitation and TWSA in the PRB are mainly influenced by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). TWSA exhibits a lag of 1–3 months responding to ENSO during 1980–2019. This study emphasizes the significance of removing water storage changes in new large reservoirs before long-term drought and flood characterization. The inclusion of reservoir water storage would expand (shrink) the drought duration and overestimate (underestimate) drought severity for the period before (after) reservoir impoundment and overestimate flood potential for the period after reservoir impoundment. This study highlights the intensifying drought conditions in the PRB over the last four decades under the circumstances of more frequent human activities (reservoir construction and regulation) and the complex changing climate system.