Estimating the epidemic size of an ongoing super-spreading coronavirus cluster outbreak in real-time
Grant Data
Project Title
Estimating the epidemic size of an ongoing super-spreading coronavirus cluster outbreak in real-time
Principal Investigator
Dr Leung, Sze Man Kathy
(Principal Investigator (PI))
Co-Investigator(s)
Professor Wu Joseph Tsz Kei
(Co-Investigator)
Duration
20
Start Date
2020-07-01
Completion Date
2022-02-28
Amount
486812
Conference Title
Estimating the epidemic size of an ongoing super-spreading coronavirus cluster outbreak in real-time
Presentation Title
Keywords
cluster outbreak, coronavirus, mathematical modeling, SARS/MERS, super-spreading
Discipline
Others - Biological Sciences,Epidemiology
Panel
Biology and Medicine (M)
HKU Project Code
17110020
Grant Type
General Research Fund (GRF)
Funding Year
2020
Status
Completed
Objectives
1 To develop a novel statistical method based on ""back-calculation"" techniques to estimate the epidemic size of an ongoing cluster outbreak similar to SARS/MERS clusters observed in healthcare settings 2 To validate the statistical method with both simulated data and observed SARS/MERS cluster outbreaks, such as SARS clusters in Beijing and Singapore in 2003 and MERS clusters in South Korea in 2015 3 To evaluate how the real-time estimation of epidemic size will improve the understanding of coronavirus cluster outbreaks to provide valuable information for rapid mitigation responses in real-time