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Article: Independent risk factors and predictive score for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B
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TitleIndependent risk factors and predictive score for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B
 
AuthorsYuen, MF1
Tanaka, Y2
Fong, DYT1
Fung, J1
Wong, DKH1
Yuen, JCH1
But, DYK1
Chan, AOO1
Wong, BCY1
Mizokami, M2
Lai, CL1
 
KeywordsChronic hepatitis B
Hepatocellular carcinoma
Prediction
Risk factor
 
Issue Date2009
 
PublisherElsevier BV. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jhep
 
CitationJournal Of Hepatology, 2009, v. 50 n. 1, p. 80-88 [How to Cite?]
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhep.2008.07.023
 
AbstractBackground/Aims: To determine whether gender, age, hepatitis B virus genotype, core promoter and precore mutations, HBeAg/ anti-HBe status, HBV DNA, ALT levels and cirrhosis on presentation were independent risk factors and derive a novel risk score for the development of HCC. Methods: CHB patients (820) were followed up (mean duration 76.8 months) for the occurrence of HCC. Results: The 5- and 10-year prevalence of HCC were 4.4% and 6.3%, respectively. Cox regression analysis showed that male gender (p = 0.025, RR 2.98), increasing age (p < 0.001, RR 1.07), higher HBV DNA levels (p = 0.02, RR 1.28), core promoter mutations (p = 0.007, RR 3.66), and presence of cirrhosis (p < 0.001, RR 7.31) were independent risks for the development of HCC. A risk score was derived and validated with sensitivity > 84% and specificity > 76% to predict the 5- and 10- year risks for the development of HCC. The AUC for the 5- and 10-year prediction were 0.88 and 0.89, respectively. Conclusions: The risk score, based on age, gender, HBV DNA levels, core promoter mutations and cirrhosis, can estimate the chance of development of HCC in 5 and 10 years after presentation. It can be used to identify high-risk CHB patients for treatment and screening of HCC. © 2008 European Association for the Study of the Liver.
 
ISSN0168-8278
2013 Impact Factor: 10.401
 
DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhep.2008.07.023
 
ISI Accession Number IDWOS:000261902900012
 
ReferencesReferences in Scopus
 
DC FieldValue
dc.contributor.authorYuen, MF
 
dc.contributor.authorTanaka, Y
 
dc.contributor.authorFong, DYT
 
dc.contributor.authorFung, J
 
dc.contributor.authorWong, DKH
 
dc.contributor.authorYuen, JCH
 
dc.contributor.authorBut, DYK
 
dc.contributor.authorChan, AOO
 
dc.contributor.authorWong, BCY
 
dc.contributor.authorMizokami, M
 
dc.contributor.authorLai, CL
 
dc.date.accessioned2010-05-31T03:45:17Z
 
dc.date.available2010-05-31T03:45:17Z
 
dc.date.issued2009
 
dc.description.abstractBackground/Aims: To determine whether gender, age, hepatitis B virus genotype, core promoter and precore mutations, HBeAg/ anti-HBe status, HBV DNA, ALT levels and cirrhosis on presentation were independent risk factors and derive a novel risk score for the development of HCC. Methods: CHB patients (820) were followed up (mean duration 76.8 months) for the occurrence of HCC. Results: The 5- and 10-year prevalence of HCC were 4.4% and 6.3%, respectively. Cox regression analysis showed that male gender (p = 0.025, RR 2.98), increasing age (p < 0.001, RR 1.07), higher HBV DNA levels (p = 0.02, RR 1.28), core promoter mutations (p = 0.007, RR 3.66), and presence of cirrhosis (p < 0.001, RR 7.31) were independent risks for the development of HCC. A risk score was derived and validated with sensitivity > 84% and specificity > 76% to predict the 5- and 10- year risks for the development of HCC. The AUC for the 5- and 10-year prediction were 0.88 and 0.89, respectively. Conclusions: The risk score, based on age, gender, HBV DNA levels, core promoter mutations and cirrhosis, can estimate the chance of development of HCC in 5 and 10 years after presentation. It can be used to identify high-risk CHB patients for treatment and screening of HCC. © 2008 European Association for the Study of the Liver.
 
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltext
 
dc.identifier.citationJournal Of Hepatology, 2009, v. 50 n. 1, p. 80-88 [How to Cite?]
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhep.2008.07.023
 
dc.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhep.2008.07.023
 
dc.identifier.epage88
 
dc.identifier.hkuros158443
 
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000261902900012
 
dc.identifier.issn0168-8278
2013 Impact Factor: 10.401
 
dc.identifier.issue1
 
dc.identifier.openurl
 
dc.identifier.pmid18977053
 
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-56949094767
 
dc.identifier.spage80
 
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/59214
 
dc.identifier.volume50
 
dc.languageeng
 
dc.publisherElsevier BV. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jhep
 
dc.publisher.placeNetherlands
 
dc.relation.ispartofJournal of Hepatology
 
dc.relation.referencesReferences in Scopus
 
dc.rightsJournal of Hepatology. Copyright © Elsevier BV.
 
dc.subject.meshAdolescent
 
dc.subject.meshAdult
 
dc.subject.meshAge Factors
 
dc.subject.meshAged
 
dc.subject.meshAged, 80 and over
 
dc.subject.meshCarcinoma, Hepatocellular - diagnosis - epidemiology
 
dc.subject.meshDNA, Viral - blood
 
dc.subject.meshFemale
 
dc.subject.meshGenotype
 
dc.subject.meshHepatitis B virus - genetics
 
dc.subject.meshHepatitis B, Chronic - blood - complications - genetics
 
dc.subject.meshHumans
 
dc.subject.meshLiver Cirrhosis - complications - diagnosis
 
dc.subject.meshLiver Neoplasms - diagnosis - epidemiology
 
dc.subject.meshLongitudinal Studies
 
dc.subject.meshMale
 
dc.subject.meshMass Screening - methods
 
dc.subject.meshMiddle Aged
 
dc.subject.meshMutation - genetics
 
dc.subject.meshPredictive Value of Tests
 
dc.subject.meshProportional Hazards Models
 
dc.subject.meshRisk Factors
 
dc.subject.meshSex Factors
 
dc.subject.meshViral Core Proteins - genetics
 
dc.subject.meshYoung Adult
 
dc.subjectChronic hepatitis B
 
dc.subjectHepatocellular carcinoma
 
dc.subjectPrediction
 
dc.subjectRisk factor
 
dc.titleIndependent risk factors and predictive score for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B
 
dc.typeArticle
 
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<contributor.author>Tanaka, Y</contributor.author>
<contributor.author>Fong, DYT</contributor.author>
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<contributor.author>Wong, DKH</contributor.author>
<contributor.author>Yuen, JCH</contributor.author>
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<contributor.author>Chan, AOO</contributor.author>
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Author Affiliations
  1. The University of Hong Kong
  2. Nagoya City University Graduate School of Medical Sciences