Statistical Analysis of the 1995 Hong Kong Legislative Council Election Results (Research Note)

Abstract

In this article we examine the voting patterns of Hong Kong's Legislative Council election held on September 17,1995. Using log-linear models, we have analysed patterns in the proportion of votes received by the fifty candidates who contested the twenty geographical constituency seats. It was found that the following factors tended to increase the received vote of a candidate: already being a Legislative Councilor, being a China or District affairs advisor, being a professional or teaching professional, being younger and being affiliated to a political party. It was found that thefollowingfactors had no significant effect on the vote received: gender of the candidate, being a district board member, being an Urban/Regional Council, or being a holder of a foreign passport. The log-linear model not only allows us to test whether or not various factors had a significant effect on the vote, but provides estimates of these effects adjusted for all other factors. This gives a more accurate picture of the factor effects than simple tabulation of the vote proportions.