Price discovery in the Hong Kong real estate market

Abstract

This paper examines price discovery for four sectors of the Hong Kong property market. The Hong Kong property market is one of the deepest and most liquid markets in the world. In addition, a substantial proportion of the real estate sector is securitized in the local share market. This makes Hong Kong one of the better places to examine price discovery. The results show that the returns to securitized real estate in Hong Kong are a mirror of broader international capital market movements. Once international capital market variables are included in the regressions, the returns to securitized real estate in Hong Kong convey little information about the appraisal-based returns to Hong Kong real estate. In addition, the results show that both capital market variables and local economic variables are significant for explaining the appraisal-based returns to Hong Kong property. The two sets of variables account for from 58% and 87% of the total variation in returns, with capital market factors contributing between 32% and 75% to the explanatory power.