Data assimilation in the atmospheric dispersion model for nuclear accident assessments

Abstract

Uncertainty factors in atmospheric dispersion models may influence the reliability of model prediction. The ability of a model in assimilating measurement data will be helpful to improve model prediction. In this paper, data assimilation based on ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is introduced to a Monte Carlo atmospheric dispersion model (MCADM) designed for assessment of consequences after an accident release of radionuclides. Twin experiment has been performed in which simulated ground-level dose rates have been assimilated. Uncertainties in the source term and turbulence intensity of wind field are considered, respectively. Methodologies and preliminary results of the application are described. It is shown that it is possible to reduce the discrepancy between the model forecast and the true situation by data assimilation. About 80% of error caused by the uncertainty in the source term is reduced, and the value for that caused by uncertainty in the turbulence intensity is about 50%. © 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.