Regional risk assessment on karst collapse in Tangshan City, China

Abstract

Since the great earthquake in Tangshan City of China dated 1978, the karst collapses keep increasing because of the damage of rock integration. However, there are many factors to influence karst collapse, including some of prerequisite factors, intensity factors, inducing factors, economic-loss factors and construction-resistance factors. These factors compose the risk factors of karst collapse. After determination of the risk value of each factor, the risk probability per roster is computed for all factors with the method called as fish-bone model. Based on the statistic features of risk probability of all rosters, the risky areas are plotted in three grades: Highly Risky Area, Moderately Risky Area and Slightly Risky Area. Finally, some suggestions are put forward to avoid or to treat the risk of collapse.