The application of decision support system to the Three Gorges Reservoir operation

Abstract

对决策信息系统流程、构成及三峡工程有关特性作了简要的介绍。在三峡水文泥沙分析系统管理数据库的基础上,通过对流域水系概化构建了三峡水库决策信息系统。对数学预报模型的方法进行了简单的介绍,并建立了三峡水库多目标管理优化调度目标函数。随后对三峡水库2005 年入库流量过程进行了提前48小时预报, 并与实际入库流量进行了比较,取得了理想的结果。运用决策系统对水库进行多目标管理是一个高度复杂的,涉及相当复杂广泛的任务。在目前的基础上,持续加强系统资料的完整,将能不断完善和充分发挥三峡水库实时决策系统的功能;同时,本系统将不仅有利于优化三峡工程的多重效益,也将有助于系统地积累水库实际运行的水沙资料从而为提高相关领域的科研和认知服务。

The basic features of decision support system (DSS) for the Three Gorges Reservoir operation is briefly introduced. Based on the hydrology and sediment information system used in the Three Gorges Project and the river network upward the project, the DSS is developed. Then, several simple stream flow computation models used in the DSS are discussed and the 48 hour inflow forecast for the Three Gorges Reservoir is made and compared with the real hydrograph of the reservoir. It is expected that the application of the DSS to the Three Gorges Project will not only optimize the various functions of the project, but also improve our understanding in hydrology and sedimentation.