Critical Rare-Earth Elements Mismatch Global Wind-Power Ambitions

Abstract

Wind power needs to be expanded rapidly across the world to stabilize our climate. However, there are increasing concerns about conflicts between the supply of rare-earth elements (REs) (mainly neodymium, praseodymium, and dysprosium) and the global expansion of wind power. Here, we provide a dynamic, technology-rich, and regional-specific approach to exploring such conflicts among ten world regions through 2050 under four widely recognized climate scenarios. We find that the significant increase in RE demand driven by the ambitious 2050 global wind-power targets cannot be achieved without 11- to 26-fold expansion in the RE production. Material recycling and efficiency, production expansion, and technical innovation are promising for alleviating RE supply shortages in the long term. However, the existing global RE supply structure, along with the intensifying geopolitical and environmental constraints, could inhibit the rapid expansion of wind power, which calls for global cooperation to foster a sustainable and responsible RE supply chain. In 2019, the United Nations called for more ambitious climate action to prevent catastrophic climate change. Decarbonizing our energy systems is one of the most important actions we can take. In response, many countries have developed ambitious plans to expand wind power. However, wind turbines heavily rely on rare-earth elements (REs), and it remains unclear whether supply can meet demand. We investigated potential conflicts between RE demand and supply across ten global regions up to 2050 under four widely recognized climate scenarios. We found that RE supply capacity to support ambitious system-wide wind-power development is likely to be hindered by the monopolistic structure of the RE supply chain and intensified geopolitical and environmental constraints, and an 11- to 26-fold increase in production will be necessary to meet ambitious wind-power-expansion targets. To overcome these RE supply challenges, we highlight the importance of facilitating free trade and diversifying RE production via global cooperation. Enhanced climate action is needed, but ambitious global wind-power-expansion targets raise concern regarding potential conflicts between the supply and demand of rare-earth elements (REs). Li et al. explore such conflicts across ten global regions through 2050 under four scenarios. They show that RE supply might not be able to meet ambitious wind-power development given the monopolistic structure of the RE supply chain and escalated geopolitical and environmental constraints. Sustainable and responsible RE supply chains are possible only via global cooperation.