Material price surges threaten an equitable and timely renewable energy transition

Abstract

Achieving global climate targets hinges on the rapid, cost-effective expansion of renewable technologies like solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind power. Studies increasingly recognize material price surges as a serious threat to this momentum. However, the long-term implications of these price risks for deployment speed, cost, and regional equity remain unclear. Here, we assess such impacts by incorporating price dynamics of nine critical materials into an integrated assessment model under a 2°C pathway through 2050. We find that price spikes could delay global PV and wind deployment by ∼13% and escalate annual installation costs by $228 billion. Developing economies are disproportionately affected, bearing 87% of the reduction in PV installation and 80% of the added costs, with deployment delays of 5–8 years that increase fossil fuel reliance. Our findings underscore the urgent need for innovative and cooperative strategies to mitigate material price risks for an equitable and affordable energy transition.