Little to Lose: Exit Options and Attitudes towards Automation in Chinese Manufacturing

Abstract

<p>Recent discussions on the future of work emphasize the negative effects of labour-replacing technology on employment and wages. However, original surveys and field research show that Chinese manufacturing workers currently consider themselves the beneficiaries of technological upgrading. This paper presents quantitative and qualitative evidence from two original surveys of over 2,400 workers and 600 companies in the manufacturing sector, interviews with firm managers and workers from 76 companies, and 34 factory visits in 19 cities in southern China. It finds that insofar as labourers experience automation anxiety, local workers are more likely than internal migrant workers to worry about technological displacement and are more pessimistic about their prospects of securing comparable employment after displacement. Owing to the features and consequences of the household registration system, internal migrants have a larger set of acceptable exit options that are no worse than their status quo, contributing to their lower anxiety about automation compared to locals. These findings suggest that automation susceptibility does not directly translate into automation opposition as previously assumed; institutions can shape technological receptiveness among people who face similar threats of automation by altering their exit options.</p>

最近关于未来工作的研究大多强调机械化对工人就业和工资的负面影响。然而，本文的问卷调查和田野研究显示，中国制造业工人目前普遍认为自己是技术升级的受益者。我们综合并分析了两次问卷调查（受访者为 2400 多名制造业工人和 600 多家企业代表）、对 76 家企业管理人员和工人的访谈，以及对位于南方 19 个城市的 34 家工厂的实地观察。研究发现，就自动化焦虑而言，本地工人比非本地工人更担心被机器取代，更忧虑在失业后无法找到类似待遇的工作。由于户籍制度的规则及其后果，非本地工人通常有更多可接受的退出选项。因为非本地工人的退出选项大多不比他们当前的待遇及状况差，所以非本地工人对自动化导致失业的焦虑比本地工人为低。以往的研究多假设工人的工种或被机器取代的潜在威胁直接影响他们对自动化的观感，但本文针对工种相若的工人的研究显示，自动化的潜在威胁并不能完全解释工人对科技的态度。制度可以通过影响工种相似的工人的退出选项，从而调节他们对技术的接受度或反对程度。