Evolutionary advantage of moderate fertility during Ming–Qing China: a unified growth perspective

Abstract

Using genealogical records of Chinese families from 1300 to 1920, this paper examines how the fundamental wheels of change identified by Unified Growth Theory operated within the Ming–Qing context. It finds that families with moderate fertility were more likely to attain higher levels of education and to experience greater reproductive success across generations, revealing a trade-off between high fertility and long-term lineage outcomes. Employing negative binomial regression and instrumental variable methods, the study shows that a preference for child quality conferred an evolutionary advantage—suggesting that, if this evolutionary pattern was present globally during the epoch of stagnation, it may have been central to the demographic transition and the emergence of modern economic growth.