State-building through natural disasters : the case of the earthquake

Abstract

State-building and the enhancement of state capacity have become core topics in political science and real-world governance, as governments require capable states to deliver effective governance that benefits society. Understanding how states are built is thus both a practical and a theoretically significant question. Existing research generally falls into two perspectives: one that emphasises reforms and the balancing of elite interests to promote state building, and another that adopts the bellicist argument that warfare led to state building. Existing research, however, faces an important gap: the role of other exogenous shocks, such as natural disasters, in shaping state-building processes. This study explores the role of earthquakes as an exogenous shock that can potentially drive state building. I argue that when natural disasters such as earthquakes are of manageable severity (i.e. strong enough to disrupt but not destroy the state) and when the state has sufficient resources and institutional capacity to respond, such events can contribute positively to state-building. Drawing on cases from different regions and stages of state development, I demonstrate that earthquakes can play a constructive role in state formation and consolidation. In a state’s early stages (i.e. when a state is premature), earthquakes provide opportunities for larger states to emerge. In its intermediate stages,iii earthquakes can facilitate state expansion through infrastructure development and administrative centralisation. In mature states, earthquakes can enhance state penetration and legitimacy by facilitating effective disaster response and reconstruction. These processes create opportunities for the state to build roads, infrastructure and institutions, thereby deepening the state’s presence and authority within society. This research offers a novel framework for understanding state building by identifying natural disasters as potential catalysts for strengthening state capacity. It challenges the conventional focus on war and reform as the primary drivers of state development, showing that exogenous shocks such as earthquakes can provide opportunities for governance improvements. This perspective practically redefines the nature of natural disasters and suggests that they can serve as stimuli for better governance when resources are available. This implies that the effective management of disasters can offer for developing countries a chance to rebuild and emerge stronger than before.