More short-term plans than longer-term ones? Measuring and monitoring urban centrality as dynamic interaction propensity

Abstract

Plans are typically forward-looking, envisioning the future based on the current circumstances. Practitioners traditionally rely on past data to characterize the status quo of cities and formulate future visions thereafter. However, as cities undergo increasingly dynamic, profound, and wide-ranging changes, the need for short-term planning to minimize the time lag between data analysis, information synthesis, and plan formulation/implementation becomes more desirable and even necessary. This study's aim is to uncover the dynamic nature of urban spatial structure by shifting the focus from static centers to evolving centrality as a key concept in urban planning. Unlike centers, which are understood in a static manner, centrality considers the dynamic movements of people across a city. To illustrate, this study utilizes a week's continuous smartcard data from a city to quantify the potential interaction patterns of metro riders throughout the urban space. A new indicator concerning social interaction potential is proposed to monitor the dynamic centrality of the local metro stations over time. This approach illustrates an innovative method for identifying near-real-time urban (sub)centers around the clock, providing valuable evidence for practitioners to make or adapt short-term plans for days (even hours and minutes) rather than years.