Patterns and trends in the burden of Alzheimer’s disease and related dementias in China (1990–2021) and predictions to 2040

Abstract

<p>Background: The epidemiology of Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD) in China is understudied as compared to global levels. Objective: The aim of this study was to examine the trend of dementia epidemiology in China from 1990 to 2021 and provide predictions for the next two decades. Methods: The Global Burden of Disease study (GBD) 2021 were used to analyze the prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates due to ADRD in China and globally. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to analyze the epidemiological trends from 1990 to 2021. A forecast of ADRD prevalence trends was conducted utilizing Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models. Results: China was experiencing a growing burden of ADRD. As of 2021, the number of people with dementia in China had risen to 56.85 million (95%CI: 49.38, 64.98), up from 21.80 (95%CI: 19.07, 24.84) million in 1990. The prevalence, incidence, mortality, and DALY rates all indicated a greater disease burden among the Chinese population compared to global levels, with a significantly higher burden in the female group. The projected prevalence rate was expected to increase by 60% compared to the current prevalence rate. Conclusions: As the population in China continues to age, ADRD presents an undeniable challenge. To mitigate the growing burden of ADRD and improve the overall health of the population, it is essential to establish a comprehensive plan that focuses on increasing public awareness and enhancing the quality of life for all, with special attention given to women.</p>