The dynamics of urban growth and CO₂ emissions in northeast China : a panel data-based analysis

Abstract

A consensus has emerged within the scientific community that the greenhouse gases produced by human activities contribute directly to global warming. Carbon dioxide, in particular, is identified by the majority of experts as a significant component and driver of this phenomenon. The significant social risks associated with CO₂ emissions have garnered global attention. At the Paris Agreement, countries worldwide pledged to curtail CO₂ emissions, with China's substantial carbon footprint garnering particular scrutiny. In numerous developed cities and regions in China, including Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangzhou, and others, research has been conducted to elucidate the interrelationship between socio-economic growth and carbon dioxide. Nevertheless, research in the Northeast has been comparatively limited due to the region's economic deceleration, diminished international visibility, and distinctive urbanization and industrialization processes. The Northeast was previously the most economically developed region in China. It has since experienced a period of recession, followed by a period of revitalization, industrialization, and rapid urbanization. As a representative industrial city, its energy consumption is considerable, and there is a significant opportunity for low-carbon development. This dissertation improves the data and methodology based on previous studies and constructs a city-level information dataset for the Northeast region from 2004 to 2018. This dataset provides a foundation for an in-depth investigation of the relationship between CO₂ emissions and the economy, population and labor force, and energy and industrial development in 32 prefecture-level cities. This study investigates the spatial and temporal evolution trends of CO₂ emissions in Northeast China over a 15-year period. The findings indicate that CO₂ emissions and per capita CO₂ emissions in Northeast China exhibit an inverse relationship with the urban economy. Furthermore, the results suggest that the majority of cities in the region are well-positioned to achieve or advance their carbon peaking targets. This study also determines the optimal model through a series of dynamic or static panel models. The results provide strong support for the "inverted U-shaped" relationship between per capita CO₂ emissions and urban growth. Additionally, a positive correlation is observed between the development of agriculture, the share of government financial expenditure, and CO₂ emissions. In contrast, the proportion of heavy industry and the number of employees in this sector demonstrate a negative correlation, which differs from the patterns observed in other regions of China. Improvement strategies are proposed for each city, taking into account the differences in CO₂ emissions and the economic benefits they bring. The city-level panel dataset provided in this thesis offers a valuable resource for further research on carbon reduction pathways in Northeast China, as well as a reference point for the sustainable development of urban growth and ecological sustainability in the region.