Utilizing the power of nature to enhance climate change mitigation

Abstract

Despite significant efforts to mitigate climate change, uncertainties and challenges persist. Therefore, implementing additional measures is imperative, particularly by harnessing the power of natural resources such as Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU) and biomass-energy conversion, in order to achieve climate goals. However, the lack of clarity regarding the pathways to and effects of implementing these measures hinders their progress. To address this knowledge gap, this thesis conducts a multi-scale analysis. At the regional scale, this thesis presents a pioneering assessment by embedding Nature-based Solutions (NbS) into the DICE model (Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy) to evaluate Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) in the Pearl River Delta (south China) during 2000-2020. The objective is to identify NbS among various AFOLU activities and capture the benefits of NbS strategies. The findings reveal that of the 17 types of land-use conversions examined, 7 types could be adopted as feasible NbS interventions with the potential to significantly reduce SCC by up to 0.032 USD/tCO2. Among these 7 NbS interventions, forest restoration has been found to be the most effective, accounting for approximately 73.3% of the SCC reductions. At the national scale, this thesis extends the temporal horizon and geographical scope to quantitatively investigate the long-term feasibility and effects of NbS on SCC in eight regions of China during 2030-2100. The FLUS (Future Land Use Simulation) model is used to project future land use changes. The results demonstrate that the efficacy of NbS interventions in reducing SCC varies across regions, with the Southwest, South Coast, and Northwest showing the most promising potential for carbon sequestration benefits. It is recommended that tailored land management practices suited to regional characteristics are crucial for maximizing both carbon sequestration potential and social welfare. The global analysis focuses on another viable approach: biomass-energy conversion. A survival analysis is conducted on all Biomass and Waste Power Units (BWPUs) across the globe by applying a parametric hazard model. This analysis seeks to understand the impacts of various factors on BWPU survival, including the properties of the units, feedstock availability, policy instruments, and national development status. The analytical results suggest that large unit sizes are more conducive to BWPU failure, while national level feedstock availability and the implementation of policy instruments such as feed-in-tariff schemes and carbon pricing can significantly reduce hazard ratios. The impacts of these factors, however, may vary among developing and developed countries. Based on the three studies across different scales, the role of natural resources in climate mitigation has been compressively examined. The pioneering incorporation of real-world land use dynamics, land use simulation, and SCC estimation could contribute to the scheme of identification, assessment, and prioritization of NbS strategies. Furthermore, the survival analysis conducted on BWPUs provides a framework that integrates multiple indicators, such as policy, socio-economic context, and feedstock availability, to explore potential improvements in the sustainable operations of BWPUs.