Can rising powers reassure? Shifting power, foreign economic policy and perceptions of revisionist intent

Abstract

<p>How do observers abroad assess the intentions of rising powers? Influential research in international relations suggests that rising powers can reassure others by using both behavior and rhetoric, but there is scarce rigorous evidence on the relative effectiveness of these strategies. In this article, we study whether and to what extent variation in behavioral and rhetorical foreign economic policies of a rising power moderate threat perceptions among observers in a declining power. We used scenario-based survey experiments administered to an elite sample of foreign policy think tank and nongovernmental organization staff and members of the public in the United States. In the experiment, we systematically varied a hypothetical rising power’s foreign aid and investment behavior and rhetoric such that it was represented as either revisionist or status quo oriented. We found that status quo-reinforcing behavior by the rising power generally lowered perceptions of threatening intentions more than status quo-reinforcing statements. However, there was also evidence that when rising powers adopted aid and investment behaviors that were consistent with prevailing norms, rhetorical assurances of satisfaction substantially reduced threat perceptions further. The findings contribute to international relations research on rising power preferences for international order as well as these states’ attempts at reassurance amidst power transitions, particularly in the context of international development.</p>