Integrating postradiotherapy plasma Epstein–Barr virus DNA and TNM stage for risk stratification of nasopharyngeal carcinoma to adjuvant therapy

Abstract

Background: After curative radiotherapy (RT) or chemoradiation (CRT), there is no validated tool to accurately identify patients for adjuvant therapy in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). Post-RT circulating plasma Epstein–Barr virus (EBV) DNA can detect minimal residual disease and is associated with recurrence and survival independent of TNM (tumor–lymph node–metastasis) stage. We aimed to develop and validate a risk model for stratification of NPC patients after completion of RT/CRT to observation or adjuvant therapy. Patients and methods: The prospective multicenter 0502 EBV DNA screening cohort (Hong Kong NPC Study Group 0502 trial) enrolled from 2006 to 2015 (n = 745) was used for model development. For internal validation, we pooled independent patient cohorts from prospective clinical studies enrolled from 1997 to 2006 (n = 340). For external validation, we used retrospective cohort of NPC patients treated at Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center from 2009 to 2012 (n = 837). Eligible patients had histologically confirmed NPC of Union for International Cancer Control (UICC) 7th Edition stage II–IVB who completed curative RT/CRT with or without neoadjuvant chemotherapy, had post-RT EBV DNA tested within 120 days after RT and received no adjuvant therapy. The primary end point was overall survival (OS). We used recursive-partitioning analysis (RPA) to classify patients into groups of low, intermediate, and high risk of death. Results: Combining post-RT EBV DNA level (0, 1–49, 50–499, and ≥500 copies/ml) and TNM stage (II, III, IVAB), RPA model classified patients into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups with 5-year OS of 89.4%, 78.5% and 37.2%, respectively. The RPA low-risk group had comparable OS to TNM stage II (5-year OS 88.5%) but identified more patients (64.8% versus stage II 28.1%) that could potentially be spared adjuvant therapy toxicity. The RPA model (c-index 0.712) showed better risk discrimination than either the TNM stage (0.604) or post-RT EBV DNA alone (0.675) with improved calibration and consistence. These results were validated in both internal and external cohorts. Conclusion: Combining post-RT EBV DNA and TNM stage improved risk stratification in NPC.