Prediction of distant metastases from nasopharyngeal carcinoma: Improved diagnostic performance of MRI using nodal volume in N1 and N2 stage disease

Abstract

Purpose To determine if the magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of the head and neck can predict distant metastases (DM) from nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). Methods and materials MRI examinations of 763 NPC patients were assessed for primary tumour stage (T), nodal stage (N), primary tumour volume (PTV) and total nodal volume (NV). The association between MRI and clinical parameters were examined in DM+ and DM− patients using logistic regression and for distant metastases free survival (DMFS) using cox regression. Optimum thresholds were assessed by receiver-operating characteristics analysis, and positive predictive value (PPV) and odds ratio (OR) calculated. Results Distant metastases were present in 181/763 NPC patients (23.7%). Higher N stage and NV were the independent predictors of DM (p < 0.001 and 0.018 respectively) and poor DMFS (p = 0.001 and 0.030 respectively). Addition of NV (threshold ≥ 32.8 cm3) to the N stage improved the PPVs and ORs for DM in stage N1 (from 18.9% to 31.8% and 5.613 to 11.133 respectively) and stage N2 (from 40.4% to 60.8% and 16.189 to 36.979 respectively) but not in stage N3 (68.3% to 68.6% and 51.385 to 52.052 respectively). Conclusion MRI N stage and NV were independent predictors of DM and DMFS. The addition of NV in NPC patients with bulky N1 and N2 disease improved the ability of MRI to predict DM.