Comparative epidemiology of outbreaks caused by SARS-CoV-2 Delta and Omicron variants in China

Abstract

From 2020 to December 2022, China implemented strict measures to contain the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. However, despite these efforts, sustained outbreaks of the Omicron variants occurred in 2022. We extracted COVID-19 case numbers from May 2021 to October 2022 to identify outbreaks of the Delta and Omicron variants in all provinces of mainland China. We found that omicron outbreaks were more frequent (4.3 vs. 1.6 outbreaks per month) and longer-lasting (mean duration: 13 vs. 4 weeks per outbreak) than Delta outbreaks, resulting in a total of 865,100 cases, of which 85% were asymptomatic. Despite the average Government Response Index being 12% higher (95% confidence interval (CI): 9%, 15%) in Omicron outbreaks, the average daily effective reproduction number (Rt) was 0.45 higher (95% CI: 0.38, 0.52, p < 0.001) than in Delta outbreaks. Omicron outbreaks were suppressed in 32 days on average (95% CI: 26, 39), which was substantially longer than Delta outbreaks (14 days; 95% CI: 11, 19; p = 0.004). We concluded that control measures effective against Delta could not contain Omicron outbreaks in China. This highlights the need for continuous evaluation of new variants' epidemiology to inform COVID-19 response decisions.