Changes in cardiovascular disease risk predicted by the Framingham risk model in the Hong Kong population between 2003-2005 and 2014-2015: data from Population Health Surveys

Abstract

Introduction: The Framingham risk model estimates a person’s 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. This study used this model to calculate the changes in sex-and age-specific CVD risks in the Hong Kong Population Health Survey (PHS) 2014/15 compared with two previous surveys conducted during 2003 and 2005, namely, PHS 2003/2004 and Heart Health Survey (HHS) 2004/2005. Methods: This study included individuals aged 30 to 74 years from PHS 2014/15 (n=1662; n=4 445 868 after population weighting) and PHS 2003/2004 and HHS 2004/2005 (n=818; n=3 495 074 after population weighting) with complete data for calculating the risk of CVD predicted by the Framingham model. Sex-specific CVD risks were calculated based on age, total cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, mean systolic blood pressure, smoking habit, diabetic status, and hypertension treatment. Mean sex-and age-specific CVD risks were calculated; differences in CVD risk between the two surveys were compared by independent t tests. Results: The difference in 10-year CVD risk from 2003-2005 to 2014-2015 was not statistically significant (10.2% vs 10.6%; P=0.29). After age standardisation according to World Health Organization world standard population data, a small decrease in CVD risk was observed, from 9.4% in 2003-2005 to 8.8% in 2014-2015. Analysis according to age-group showed that more participants aged 65 to 74 years were considered high risk in 2003 to 2005 (2003-2005: 66.8% vs 2014-2015: 53.1%; P=0.028). This difference may be due to the decrease in smokers among men (2003-2005: 30.5% vs 2014-2015: 24.0%; P<0.001). Conclusion: From 2003-2005 to 2014-2015, there was a small decrease in age-standardised 10-year CVD risk. A holistic public health approach simultaneously targeting multiple risk factors is needed to achieve greater decreases in CVD risk.