Large uncertainty on forest area change in the early 21st century among widely used global land cover datasets

Abstract

Forests play an important role in the Earth’s system. Understanding the states and changes in global forests is vital for ecological assessments and forest policy guidance. However, there is no consensus on how global forests have changed based on current datasets. In this study, five global land cover datasets and Global Forest Resources Assessments (FRA) were assessed to reveal uncertainties in the global forest changes in the early 21st century. These datasets displayed substantial divergences in total area, spatial distribution, latitudinal profile, and annual area change from 2001 to 2012. These datasets also display completely divergent conclusions on forest area changes for different countries. Among the datasets, total forest area changes range from an increase of 1.7 × 106 km2 to a decrease of 1.6 × 106 km2. All the datasets show deforestation in the tropics. The accuracies of the datasets in detecting forest cover changes were evaluated by a global land cover validation dataset. The spatial patterns of accuracies are inconsistent among the datasets. This study calls for the development of a more accurate database to support forest policies and to contribute to global actions against climate change.