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Article: China's carbon-neutral policies will reduce short-term PM2.5-associated excess incidence of cardiovascular diseases

TitleChina's carbon-neutral policies will reduce short-term PM2.5-associated excess incidence of cardiovascular diseases
Authors
Keywordsambient PM2.5
carbon neutral
cardiovascular disease
health benefit
incidence
projection
short-term exposure
Issue Date15-Mar-2024
PublisherCell Press
Citation
One Earth, 2024, v. 7, n. 3, p. 497-505 How to Cite?
AbstractChina's carbon-neutral target could have benefits for ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5)-associated mortality. Although previous studies have researched such benefits, the potential impact on cardiovascular disease incidence burden is yet to be investigated thoroughly. Here, we first estimate the association between short-term PM2.5 exposure and the incidence of stroke and coronary heart disease (CHD) via a case-crossover study before projecting future changes in short-term PM2.5-associated excess incidence across China from 2025 to 2060 under three different emission scenarios. We find that, compared to the 2015–2020 baseline, average PM2.5 concentrations nationwide in 2060 under SSP119 (an approximation of a carbon-neutral scenario) are projected to decrease by 81.07%. The short-term PM2.5-related excess incidence of stroke and CHD is projected to be reduced to 3,352 cases (95% confidence interval: 939, 5,738)—compared with 34,485 cases under a medium-emissions scenario (SSP245)—and is expected to be accompanied by a 95% reduction in the related economic burden. China's carbon-neutral policies are likely to bring health benefits for cardiovascular disease by reducing short-term PM2.5-related incidence burden.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/347886
ISSN
2023 Impact Factor: 15.1
2023 SCImago Journal Rankings: 3.392

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorBan, Jie-
dc.contributor.authorCheng, Jing-
dc.contributor.authorZhang, Can-
dc.contributor.authorLu, Kailai-
dc.contributor.authorZhou, Zhen-
dc.contributor.authorLiu, Zhao-
dc.contributor.authorChen, Yidan-
dc.contributor.authorWang, Can-
dc.contributor.authorCai, Wenjia-
dc.contributor.authorGong, Peng-
dc.contributor.authorLuo, Yong-
dc.contributor.authorTong, Dan-
dc.contributor.authorHu, Jianlin-
dc.contributor.authorGuo, Xinbiao-
dc.contributor.authorHao, Junwei-
dc.contributor.authorLi, Tiantian-
dc.date.accessioned2024-10-02T06:25:13Z-
dc.date.available2024-10-02T06:25:13Z-
dc.date.issued2024-03-15-
dc.identifier.citationOne Earth, 2024, v. 7, n. 3, p. 497-505-
dc.identifier.issn2590-3330-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/347886-
dc.description.abstractChina's carbon-neutral target could have benefits for ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5)-associated mortality. Although previous studies have researched such benefits, the potential impact on cardiovascular disease incidence burden is yet to be investigated thoroughly. Here, we first estimate the association between short-term PM2.5 exposure and the incidence of stroke and coronary heart disease (CHD) via a case-crossover study before projecting future changes in short-term PM2.5-associated excess incidence across China from 2025 to 2060 under three different emission scenarios. We find that, compared to the 2015–2020 baseline, average PM2.5 concentrations nationwide in 2060 under SSP119 (an approximation of a carbon-neutral scenario) are projected to decrease by 81.07%. The short-term PM2.5-related excess incidence of stroke and CHD is projected to be reduced to 3,352 cases (95% confidence interval: 939, 5,738)—compared with 34,485 cases under a medium-emissions scenario (SSP245)—and is expected to be accompanied by a 95% reduction in the related economic burden. China's carbon-neutral policies are likely to bring health benefits for cardiovascular disease by reducing short-term PM2.5-related incidence burden.-
dc.languageeng-
dc.publisherCell Press-
dc.relation.ispartofOne Earth-
dc.rightsThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.-
dc.subjectambient PM2.5-
dc.subjectcarbon neutral-
dc.subjectcardiovascular disease-
dc.subjecthealth benefit-
dc.subjectincidence-
dc.subjectprojection-
dc.subjectshort-term exposure-
dc.titleChina's carbon-neutral policies will reduce short-term PM2.5-associated excess incidence of cardiovascular diseases-
dc.typeArticle-
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.oneear.2024.01.006-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-85187735869-
dc.identifier.volume7-
dc.identifier.issue3-
dc.identifier.spage497-
dc.identifier.epage505-
dc.identifier.eissn2590-3322-
dc.identifier.issnl2590-3322-

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