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Article: Impacts of climate change, population growth, and power sector decarbonization on urban building energy use
Title | Impacts of climate change, population growth, and power sector decarbonization on urban building energy use |
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Authors | |
Issue Date | 18-Oct-2023 |
Publisher | Nature Research |
Citation | Nature Communications, 2023, v. 14 How to Cite? |
Abstract | Climate, technologies, and socio-economic changes will influence future building energy use in cities. However, current low-resolution regional and state-level analyses are insufficient to reliably assist city-level decision-making. Here we estimate mid-century hourly building energy consumption in 277 U.S. urban areas using a bottom-up approach. The projected future climate change results in heterogeneous changes in energy use intensity (EUI) among urban areas, particularly under higher warming scenarios, with on average 10.1–37.7% increases in the frequency of peak building electricity EUI but over 110% increases in some cities. For each 1 °C of warming, the mean city-scale space-conditioning EUI experiences an average increase/decrease of ~14%/ ~ 10% for space cooling/heating. Heterogeneous city-scale building source energy use changes are primarily driven by population and power sector changes, on average ranging from –9% to 40% with consistent south–north gradients under different scenarios. Across the scenarios considered here, the changes in city-scale building source energy use, when averaged over all urban areas, are as follows: –2.5% to –2.0% due to climate change, 7.3% to 52.2% due to population growth, and –17.1% to –8.9% due to power sector decarbonization. Our findings underscore the necessity of considering intercity heterogeneity when developing sustainable and resilient urban energy systems. |
Persistent Identifier | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/347253 |
ISSN | 2023 Impact Factor: 14.7 2023 SCImago Journal Rankings: 4.887 |
DC Field | Value | Language |
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dc.contributor.author | Wang Chenghao | - |
dc.contributor.author | Song Jiyun | - |
dc.contributor.author | Shi Dachuan | - |
dc.contributor.author | Reyna Janet L | - |
dc.contributor.author | Horsey Henry | - |
dc.contributor.author | Feron Sarah | - |
dc.contributor.author | Zhou Yuyu | - |
dc.contributor.author | Ouyang Zutao | - |
dc.contributor.author | Li Ying | - |
dc.contributor.author | Jackson Robert B | - |
dc.date.accessioned | 2024-09-20T00:30:58Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2024-09-20T00:30:58Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2023-10-18 | - |
dc.identifier.citation | Nature Communications, 2023, v. 14 | - |
dc.identifier.issn | 2041-1723 | - |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/347253 | - |
dc.description.abstract | <p>Climate, technologies, and socio-economic changes will influence future building energy use in cities. However, current low-resolution regional and state-level analyses are insufficient to reliably assist city-level decision-making. Here we estimate mid-century hourly building energy consumption in 277 U.S. urban areas using a bottom-up approach. The projected future climate change results in heterogeneous changes in energy use intensity (EUI) among urban areas, particularly under higher warming scenarios, with on average 10.1–37.7% increases in the frequency of peak building electricity EUI but over 110% increases in some cities. For each 1 °C of warming, the mean city-scale space-conditioning EUI experiences an average increase/decrease of ~14%/ ~ 10% for space cooling/heating. Heterogeneous city-scale building source energy use changes are primarily driven by population and power sector changes, on average ranging from –9% to 40% with consistent south–north gradients under different scenarios. Across the scenarios considered here, the changes in city-scale building source energy use, when averaged over all urban areas, are as follows: –2.5% to –2.0% due to climate change, 7.3% to 52.2% due to population growth, and –17.1% to –8.9% due to power sector decarbonization. Our findings underscore the necessity of considering intercity heterogeneity when developing sustainable and resilient urban energy systems.<br></p> | - |
dc.language | eng | - |
dc.publisher | Nature Research | - |
dc.relation.ispartof | Nature Communications | - |
dc.title | Impacts of climate change, population growth, and power sector decarbonization on urban building energy use | - |
dc.type | Article | - |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1038/s41467-023-41458-5 | - |
dc.identifier.volume | 14 | - |
dc.identifier.eissn | 2041-1723 | - |
dc.identifier.issnl | 2041-1723 | - |