Scenario-based simulation on dynamics of land-use-land-cover change in Punjab province, Pakistan

Abstract

The dramatic changes in land use are associated with various influencing factors such as socioeconomic, climatic, geophysical and proximity factors. Hence, understanding the driving mechanisms of land use changes is crucial to determine the pattern of future changes in land use. The aim of this study is to project the future land use and land cover changes from 2010 to 2030 in Punjab province under three scenarios: Business-as-Usual scenario (BAU), Rapid Economic Growth scenario (REG) and Coordinated Environmental Sustainability scenario (CES). This article used the previously developed Dynamics of Land System (DLS) model to simulate the land use changes in response to the driving mechanisms. The results indicate that cultivated land and built-up areas would expand while areas of water and grassland would face contraction under all three scenarios. Nevertheless, future land demand varies in different scenarios. Under the CES scenario; forest area would expand in the future while large reduction in unused land would be observed. Under the REG scenario, augmented expansion of built-up areas and drastic decrease in forest areas would be the main features of land use changes. Our findings in the scenario analysis of land use changes can provide a reference case for sustainable land use planning and management in Punjab province.