Is there scope for growth? Mapping habitat suitability for Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) across its range in China

Abstract

Maintenance of sufficient habitat for large terrestrial mammals in increasingly human-dominated landscapes is challenging. Wild Asian elephants in China were historically widespread, but now comprise 293 individuals confined to three prefectures in southwestern Yunnan Province. Effective legal protection has permitted population growth of Chinese elephants, but it is not known why elephants are confined to the southwestern portion of Yunnan, nor has there been a comprehensive assessment of the extent, quality and carrying capacity of habitat within their potential range. We used multiscale multivariable species-distribution modelling to evaluate the effects of topography, land use, transport infrastructure and settlements on habitat suitability for elephants throughout Yunnan during 2012–2021, using data from literature records, field surveys and camera traps. Elephant distribution was strongly influenced by the presence of forest measured at coarse (32-km) scales, with forest fragmentation and percentage cover together accounting for 64% of total variability, whereas settlements and infrastructure had a relatively minor effect (1.7%). Almost 17,430 km2 of habitat, mostly along the border with Myanmar and Lao PDR, was predicted to be highly suitable for elephants, and a smaller amount in two prefectures that currently lack elephants. We estimate that Yunnan could support an additional 810 (range 300–1469) elephants, more than twice the current population. However, 90% of habitat predicted to be suitable was outside currently protected areas. By making conservative predictions about the potential for restoration or enhancement of habitat, we project that Yunnan could sustain a further 305 elephants, bringing the total population to 1408. Our results have relevance for planning of a proposed national park for elephants in the province.