Slower changes in vegetation phenology than precipitation seasonality in the dry tropics

Abstract

The dry tropics occupy ~40% of the tropical land surface and play a dominant role in the trend and interannual variability of the global carbon cycle. Previous studies have reported considerable changes in the dry tropical precipitation seasonality due to climate change, however, the accompanied changes in the length of the vegetation growing season (LGS)—the key period of carbon sequestration—have not been examined. Here, we used long-term satellite observations along with in-situ flux measurements to investigate phenological changes in the dry tropics over the past 40 years. We found that only ~18% of the dry tropics show a significant (p ≤.1) increasing trend in LGS, while ~13% show a significant decreasing trend. The direction of the LGS change depended not only on the direction of precipitation seasonality change but also on the vegetation water use strategy (i.e. isohydricity) as an adaptation to the long-term average precipitation seasonality (i.e. whether the most of LGS is in the wet season or dry season). Meanwhile, we found that the rate of LGS change was on average ~23% slower than that of precipitation seasonality, caused by a buffering effect from soil moisture. This study uncovers potential mechanisms driving phenological changes in the dry tropics, offering guidance for regional vegetation and carbon cycle studies.