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Article: Counterfactual Contamination

TitleCounterfactual Contamination
Authors
Keywordscounterfactuals
knowledge
safety
Issue Date2022
Citation
Australasian Journal of Philosophy, 2022, v. 100, n. 2, p. 262-278 How to Cite?
AbstractMany defend the thesis that when someone knows p, they couldn’t easily have been wrong about p. But the notion of easy possibility in play is relatively under-theorized. One structural idea in the literature, the principle of Counterfactual Closure (CC), connects easy possibility with counterfactuals: if it easily could have happened that p, and if p were the case then q would be the case, then it follows that it easily could have happened that q. We first argue that, while CC is false, there is a true restriction of it to cases involving counterfactual dependence on a coin flip. The failure of CC falsifies a model where the easy possibilities are counterfactually similar to actuality. Next, we show that extant normality models, where the easy possibilities are the sufficiently normal ones, are incompatible with the restricted CC thesis involving coin flips. Next, we develop a new kind of normality theory that can accommodate the restricted version of CC. This new theory introduces a principle of Counterfactual Contamination, which says, roughly, that any world is fairly abnormal if at that world very abnormal events counterfactually depend on a coin flip. Finally, we explain why coin flips and other related events have a special status. A central take-home lesson is that the correct principle in the vicinity of Safety is importantly normality-theoretic rather than (as it is usually conceived) similarity-theoretic.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/336270
ISSN
2023 Impact Factor: 1.0
2023 SCImago Journal Rankings: 1.302
ISI Accession Number ID

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorGoldstein, Simon-
dc.contributor.authorHawthorne, John-
dc.date.accessioned2024-01-15T08:25:04Z-
dc.date.available2024-01-15T08:25:04Z-
dc.date.issued2022-
dc.identifier.citationAustralasian Journal of Philosophy, 2022, v. 100, n. 2, p. 262-278-
dc.identifier.issn0004-8402-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/336270-
dc.description.abstractMany defend the thesis that when someone knows p, they couldn’t easily have been wrong about p. But the notion of easy possibility in play is relatively under-theorized. One structural idea in the literature, the principle of Counterfactual Closure (CC), connects easy possibility with counterfactuals: if it easily could have happened that p, and if p were the case then q would be the case, then it follows that it easily could have happened that q. We first argue that, while CC is false, there is a true restriction of it to cases involving counterfactual dependence on a coin flip. The failure of CC falsifies a model where the easy possibilities are counterfactually similar to actuality. Next, we show that extant normality models, where the easy possibilities are the sufficiently normal ones, are incompatible with the restricted CC thesis involving coin flips. Next, we develop a new kind of normality theory that can accommodate the restricted version of CC. This new theory introduces a principle of Counterfactual Contamination, which says, roughly, that any world is fairly abnormal if at that world very abnormal events counterfactually depend on a coin flip. Finally, we explain why coin flips and other related events have a special status. A central take-home lesson is that the correct principle in the vicinity of Safety is importantly normality-theoretic rather than (as it is usually conceived) similarity-theoretic.-
dc.languageeng-
dc.relation.ispartofAustralasian Journal of Philosophy-
dc.subjectcounterfactuals-
dc.subjectknowledge-
dc.subjectsafety-
dc.titleCounterfactual Contamination-
dc.typeArticle-
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltext-
dc.identifier.doi10.1080/00048402.2021.1886129-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-85102824016-
dc.identifier.volume100-
dc.identifier.issue2-
dc.identifier.spage262-
dc.identifier.epage278-
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000629293400001-

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