China in 2000: A year of strategic rethinking

Abstract

For China's decision makers, the first year of the 21st century was a year of strategic rethinking. Chinese leaders confronted three challenging questions: how to reaffirm China's determination, including the use of force if necessary, to halt Taiwan independence, but not at the expense of economic development; how to maintain rapid economic growth in the coastal area while systematically redirecting resources to the western region; and how to change the image of the CCP, taking advantage of new trends in society, but not undermining its power. These issues-national security, economic development, and political legitimacy-are the fundamental challenges facing China today. They are all closely interconnected. War or peace with Taiwan will enormously affect the entire process of economic development and political reform on the mainland. Developing the western region may have profound implications for the way in which China deals with the Taiwan Strait issue. During the Taiwan Strait crisis, the inland provinces were more belligerent than the coastal provinces because the former were not risking as much if a war broke out. China's strategic shift westward, therefore, will lead those local officials to also focus on economic development. Their counterparts in the coastal region reportedly lobbied against military hardliners during the Taiwan crisis in 2000. Jiang's effort to redefine the CCP will likely modify the image of the Chinese leadership, especially when more U.S.-educated technocrats and other specialists enter the 16th Central Committee of the CCP in 2002. Leaders in Taiwan and the U.S. may find that they are dealing with new PRC leaders having backgrounds similar to theirs. As a result, distrust and misunderstanding may be replaced by mutual respect and cooperation in the relations across the Taiwan Strait-and across the Pacific Ocean.