Jiang Zemin's successors: The rise of the fourth generation of leaders in the PRC

Abstract

What are the main characteristics of the fourth generation of leaders? In what ways do they resemble or differ from their predecessors, the third generation? What are their social backgrounds and career paths? What are the principal criteria for advancement to high office in this generation? The future of the Chinese Communist Party will largely depend on whether, as Hu Jintao recently said, the new Chinese leadership can win over public support, especially the country's younger generations. To what extent does the fourth generation of leaders share similar convictions about the nature of the communist political system, and thereby maintain their loyalty and commitment to it? In addition to inter-generational differences, are there any important intra-generational differences among the fourth generation? This study argues that this generation of leaders is more diversified than previous generations in terms of formative experiences, political solidarity, ideological conviction, career paths and occupational background. The article begins by discussing the concept of political elite generations in the PRC and defining its fourth generation of leaders. The focus will be on the biographical data of 298 Chinese political elites. In addition to analysing data from the above source, this study explores some important informal networks and personal connections among these leaders by using other sources from Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan and elsewhere, seeking verification from multiple PRC publications and the increasing availability of internet information from the PRC. Brief case studies are also used to analyse the role of school ties and political nepotism in the recruitment and promotion of these political elites, especially prominent figures of this generation. Data about the background characteristics of leaders, of course, cannot give complete information about their political behaviour. But political leaders' behaviour and attitudes may be developed or constrained by their formative memories, socio-economic environments, occupational backgrounds and personal networks, all of which may influence their policy preferences. This article attempts to compare various aspects of this generation of leaders with their predecessors. It concludes by exploring both shared characteristics and major differences among the fourth generation of leaders and their implications for China's politics in the future.