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Article: How do weather and climate change impact the COVID-19 pandemic? Evidence from the Chinese mainland
Title | How do weather and climate change impact the COVID-19 pandemic? Evidence from the Chinese mainland |
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Authors | |
Keywords | climate change COVID-19 global warming weather |
Issue Date | 2020 |
Citation | Environmental Research Letters, 2020, v. 16, n. 1, article no. 014026 How to Cite? |
Abstract | The COVID-19 pandemic continues to expand, while the relationship between weather conditions and the spread of the virus remains largely debatable. In this paper, we attempt to examine this question by employing a flexible econometric model coupled with fine-scaled hourly temperature variations and a rich set of covariates for 291 cities in the Chinese mainland. More importantly, we combine the baseline estimates with climate-change projections from 21 global climate models to understand the pandemic in different scenarios. We found a significant negative relationship between temperatures and caseload. A one-hour increase in temperatures from 25 °C to 28 °C tends to reduce daily cases by 15.1%, relative to such an increase from -2 °C to 1 °C. Our results also suggest an inverted U-shaped nonlinear relationship between relative humidity and confirmed cases. Despite the negative effects of heat, we found that rising temperatures induced by climate change are unlikely to contain a hypothesized pandemic in the future. In contrast, cases would tend to increase by 10.9% from 2040 to 2059 with a representative concentration pathway (RCP) of 4.5 and by 7.5% at an RCP of 8.5, relative to 2020, though reductions of 1.8% and 18.9% were projected for 2080-2099 for the same RCPs, respectively. These findings raise concerns that the pandemic could worsen under the climate-change framework. |
Persistent Identifier | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/334720 |
ISSN | |
ISI Accession Number ID |
DC Field | Value | Language |
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dc.contributor.author | Fan, Jing Li | - |
dc.contributor.author | Da, Yabin | - |
dc.contributor.author | Zeng, Bin | - |
dc.contributor.author | Zhang, Hao | - |
dc.contributor.author | Liu, Zhu | - |
dc.contributor.author | Jia, Na | - |
dc.contributor.author | Liu, Jue | - |
dc.contributor.author | Wang, Bin | - |
dc.contributor.author | Li, Lanlan | - |
dc.contributor.author | Guan, Dabo | - |
dc.contributor.author | Zhang, Xian | - |
dc.date.accessioned | 2023-10-20T06:50:10Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2023-10-20T06:50:10Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2020 | - |
dc.identifier.citation | Environmental Research Letters, 2020, v. 16, n. 1, article no. 014026 | - |
dc.identifier.issn | 1748-9318 | - |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/334720 | - |
dc.description.abstract | The COVID-19 pandemic continues to expand, while the relationship between weather conditions and the spread of the virus remains largely debatable. In this paper, we attempt to examine this question by employing a flexible econometric model coupled with fine-scaled hourly temperature variations and a rich set of covariates for 291 cities in the Chinese mainland. More importantly, we combine the baseline estimates with climate-change projections from 21 global climate models to understand the pandemic in different scenarios. We found a significant negative relationship between temperatures and caseload. A one-hour increase in temperatures from 25 °C to 28 °C tends to reduce daily cases by 15.1%, relative to such an increase from -2 °C to 1 °C. Our results also suggest an inverted U-shaped nonlinear relationship between relative humidity and confirmed cases. Despite the negative effects of heat, we found that rising temperatures induced by climate change are unlikely to contain a hypothesized pandemic in the future. In contrast, cases would tend to increase by 10.9% from 2040 to 2059 with a representative concentration pathway (RCP) of 4.5 and by 7.5% at an RCP of 8.5, relative to 2020, though reductions of 1.8% and 18.9% were projected for 2080-2099 for the same RCPs, respectively. These findings raise concerns that the pandemic could worsen under the climate-change framework. | - |
dc.language | eng | - |
dc.relation.ispartof | Environmental Research Letters | - |
dc.subject | climate change | - |
dc.subject | COVID-19 | - |
dc.subject | global warming | - |
dc.subject | weather | - |
dc.title | How do weather and climate change impact the COVID-19 pandemic? Evidence from the Chinese mainland | - |
dc.type | Article | - |
dc.description.nature | link_to_subscribed_fulltext | - |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1088/1748-9326/abcf76 | - |
dc.identifier.scopus | eid_2-s2.0-85098575843 | - |
dc.identifier.volume | 16 | - |
dc.identifier.issue | 1 | - |
dc.identifier.spage | article no. 014026 | - |
dc.identifier.epage | article no. 014026 | - |
dc.identifier.eissn | 1748-9326 | - |
dc.identifier.isi | WOS:000603521500001 | - |