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Article: Should age-period-cohort studies return to the methodologies of the 1970s?

TitleShould age-period-cohort studies return to the methodologies of the 1970s?
Authors
KeywordsAge-period-cohort models
Body mass index
Cohort effects
Hierarchical modeling
Obesity epidemic
Random effects
Research methods
Social change
Issue Date2015
Citation
Social Science and Medicine, 2015, v. 128, p. 356-365 How to Cite?
AbstractSocial scientists have recognized the importance of age-period-cohort (APC) models for half a century, but have spent much of this time mired in debates about the feasibility of APC methods. Recently, a new class of APC methods based on modern statistical knowledge has emerged, offering potential solutions. In 2009, Reither, Hauser and Yang used one of these new methods - hierarchical APC (HAPC) modeling - to study how birth cohorts may have contributed to the U.S. obesity epidemic. They found that recent birth cohorts experience higher odds of obesity than their predecessors, but that ubiquitous period-based changes are primarily responsible for the rising prevalence of obesity. Although these findings have been replicated elsewhere, recent commentaries by Bell and Jones call them into question - along with the new class of APC methods. Specifically, Bell and Jones claim that new APC methods do not adequately address model identification and suggest that "solid theory" is often sufficient to remove one of the three temporal dimensions from empirical consideration. They also present a series of simulation models that purportedly show how the HAPC models estimated by Reither etal. (2009) could have produced misleading results. However, these simulation models rest on assumptions that there were no period effects, and associations between period and cohort variables and the outcome were perfectly linear. Those are conditions under which APC models should never be used. Under more tenable assumptions, our own simulations show that HAPC methods perform well, both in recovering the main findings presented by Reither etal. (2009) and the results reported by Bell and Jones. We also respond to critiques about model identification and theoretically-imposed constraints, finding little pragmatic support for such arguments. We conclude by encouraging social scientists to move beyond the debates of the 1970s and toward a deeper appreciation for modern APC methodologies.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/334382
ISSN
2023 Impact Factor: 4.9
2023 SCImago Journal Rankings: 1.954
ISI Accession Number ID

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorReither, Eric N.-
dc.contributor.authorMasters, Ryan K.-
dc.contributor.authorYang, Yang Claire-
dc.contributor.authorPowers, Daniel A.-
dc.contributor.authorZheng, Hui-
dc.contributor.authorLand, Kenneth C.-
dc.date.accessioned2023-10-20T06:47:45Z-
dc.date.available2023-10-20T06:47:45Z-
dc.date.issued2015-
dc.identifier.citationSocial Science and Medicine, 2015, v. 128, p. 356-365-
dc.identifier.issn0277-9536-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/334382-
dc.description.abstractSocial scientists have recognized the importance of age-period-cohort (APC) models for half a century, but have spent much of this time mired in debates about the feasibility of APC methods. Recently, a new class of APC methods based on modern statistical knowledge has emerged, offering potential solutions. In 2009, Reither, Hauser and Yang used one of these new methods - hierarchical APC (HAPC) modeling - to study how birth cohorts may have contributed to the U.S. obesity epidemic. They found that recent birth cohorts experience higher odds of obesity than their predecessors, but that ubiquitous period-based changes are primarily responsible for the rising prevalence of obesity. Although these findings have been replicated elsewhere, recent commentaries by Bell and Jones call them into question - along with the new class of APC methods. Specifically, Bell and Jones claim that new APC methods do not adequately address model identification and suggest that "solid theory" is often sufficient to remove one of the three temporal dimensions from empirical consideration. They also present a series of simulation models that purportedly show how the HAPC models estimated by Reither etal. (2009) could have produced misleading results. However, these simulation models rest on assumptions that there were no period effects, and associations between period and cohort variables and the outcome were perfectly linear. Those are conditions under which APC models should never be used. Under more tenable assumptions, our own simulations show that HAPC methods perform well, both in recovering the main findings presented by Reither etal. (2009) and the results reported by Bell and Jones. We also respond to critiques about model identification and theoretically-imposed constraints, finding little pragmatic support for such arguments. We conclude by encouraging social scientists to move beyond the debates of the 1970s and toward a deeper appreciation for modern APC methodologies.-
dc.languageeng-
dc.relation.ispartofSocial Science and Medicine-
dc.subjectAge-period-cohort models-
dc.subjectBody mass index-
dc.subjectCohort effects-
dc.subjectHierarchical modeling-
dc.subjectObesity epidemic-
dc.subjectRandom effects-
dc.subjectResearch methods-
dc.subjectSocial change-
dc.titleShould age-period-cohort studies return to the methodologies of the 1970s?-
dc.typeArticle-
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltext-
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.socscimed.2015.01.011-
dc.identifier.pmid25617033-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-84922231176-
dc.identifier.volume128-
dc.identifier.spage356-
dc.identifier.epage365-
dc.identifier.eissn1873-5347-
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000351323500048-

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