File Download
There are no files associated with this item.
Links for fulltext
(May Require Subscription)
- Publisher Website: 10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101389
- Scopus: eid_2-s2.0-85146165450
- WOS: WOS:000923142300001
- Find via
Supplementary
- Citations:
- Appears in Collections:
Article: Mega-city development impact on hourly extreme rainfall over the South China Greater Bay Area under near-future climate warming
| Title | Mega-city development impact on hourly extreme rainfall over the South China Greater Bay Area under near-future climate warming |
|---|---|
| Authors | |
| Keywords | Climate change Extreme precipitation Urban Heat Island effect Urbanization |
| Issue Date | 1-Mar-2023 |
| Publisher | Elsevier |
| Citation | Urban Climate, 2023, v. 48 How to Cite? |
| Abstract | The impacts of near-future urban development and global warming forcing on hourly extreme rainfall over the South China Greater Bay Area (GBA) area have been investigated, by dynamically downscaling General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) at convection-permitting resolution, coupled with an Urban Canopy Model (UCM). Three downscaling experiments corresponding to different urban land cover (1999 and projected 2030) and climate (1951-to-2000 and 2001-to-2050 GCM simulations) were designed. Effects of near-future climate change and 1999-to-2030 urban development on GBA extreme precipitation were then examined, using boundary conditions derived from GBA extreme rainfall events in the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model (GFDL-ESM2M) historical and RCP8.5 simulations. Results show that climate change and rapid urban development forcing have comparable positive effects on the intensity as well as heavy hourly rainfall probability over the GBA urban area. Global warming tends to increase heavy rainfall probability (from 40 to 60 mm/h) by about 1.3 to 1.8 times, but at the same time suppress the probability of light rainfall (from 1 to 10 mm/h) by about 20%. Urban development increases urban rainfall probability within the whole range of intensity, with frequency for very heavy rainfall (> 90 mm/h) almost doubled. It is worth mentioning that impacts due to rapid urban development can be as important as global warming forcing in the near future in exacerbating hourly extreme rainfall over the GBA coastal megacity. |
| Persistent Identifier | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/331743 |
| ISSN | 2023 Impact Factor: 6.0 2023 SCImago Journal Rankings: 1.318 |
| ISI Accession Number ID |
| DC Field | Value | Language |
|---|---|---|
| dc.contributor.author | Hu, Chenxi | - |
| dc.contributor.author | Tam, Chi-Yung | - |
| dc.contributor.author | Li, Xinwei | - |
| dc.contributor.author | Huang, Kangning | - |
| dc.contributor.author | Ren, Chao | - |
| dc.contributor.author | Fung, Kwun Yip | - |
| dc.contributor.author | Wang, Ziqian | - |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2023-09-21T06:58:32Z | - |
| dc.date.available | 2023-09-21T06:58:32Z | - |
| dc.date.issued | 2023-03-01 | - |
| dc.identifier.citation | Urban Climate, 2023, v. 48 | - |
| dc.identifier.issn | 2212-0955 | - |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/331743 | - |
| dc.description.abstract | <p>The impacts of near-future urban development and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/global-warming" title="Learn more about global warming from ScienceDirect's AI-generated Topic Pages">global warming</a> forcing on hourly extreme rainfall over the South China Greater Bay Area (GBA) area have been investigated, by dynamically downscaling <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/general-circulation-model" title="Learn more about General Circulation Model from ScienceDirect's AI-generated Topic Pages">General Circulation Model</a> (GCM) outputs using the Weather Research and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/social-sciences/forecasting-model" title="Learn more about Forecasting Model from ScienceDirect's AI-generated Topic Pages">Forecasting Model</a> (WRF) at convection-permitting resolution, coupled with an <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/urban-canopy" title="Learn more about Urban Canopy from ScienceDirect's AI-generated Topic Pages">Urban Canopy</a> Model (UCM). Three downscaling experiments corresponding to different urban land cover (1999 and projected 2030) and climate (1951-to-2000 and 2001-to-2050 GCM simulations) were designed. Effects of near-future climate change and 1999-to-2030 urban development on GBA extreme precipitation were then examined, using boundary conditions derived from GBA extreme rainfall events in the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/geophysical-fluid-dynamics" title="Learn more about Geophysical Fluid Dynamics from ScienceDirect's AI-generated Topic Pages">Geophysical Fluid Dynamics</a> Laboratory Earth System Model (GFDL-ESM2M) historical and RCP8.5 simulations. Results show that climate change and rapid urban development forcing have comparable positive effects on the intensity as well as heavy hourly rainfall probability over the GBA urban area. Global warming tends to increase <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/engineering/heavy-rainfall" title="Learn more about heavy rainfall from ScienceDirect's AI-generated Topic Pages">heavy rainfall</a> probability (from 40 to 60 mm/h) by about 1.3 to 1.8 times, but at the same time suppress the probability of light rainfall (from 1 to 10 mm/h) by about 20%. Urban development increases urban rainfall probability within the whole range of intensity, with frequency for very heavy rainfall (> 90 mm/h) almost doubled. It is worth mentioning that impacts due to rapid urban development can be as important as global warming forcing in the near future in exacerbating hourly extreme rainfall over the GBA coastal megacity.<span> </span></p> | - |
| dc.language | eng | - |
| dc.publisher | Elsevier | - |
| dc.relation.ispartof | Urban Climate | - |
| dc.rights | This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License. | - |
| dc.subject | Climate change | - |
| dc.subject | Extreme precipitation | - |
| dc.subject | Urban Heat Island effect | - |
| dc.subject | Urbanization | - |
| dc.title | Mega-city development impact on hourly extreme rainfall over the South China Greater Bay Area under near-future climate warming | - |
| dc.type | Article | - |
| dc.identifier.doi | 10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101389 | - |
| dc.identifier.scopus | eid_2-s2.0-85146165450 | - |
| dc.identifier.volume | 48 | - |
| dc.identifier.isi | WOS:000923142300001 | - |
| dc.identifier.issnl | 2212-0955 | - |