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Article: A novel method to monitor COVID-19 fatality rate in real-time, a key metric to guide public health policy

TitleA novel method to monitor COVID-19 fatality rate in real-time, a key metric to guide public health policy
Authors
Issue Date31-Oct-2022
PublisherNature Research
Citation
Scientific Reports, 2022, v. 12, n. 1 How to Cite?
Abstract

An accurate estimator of the real-time fatality rate is warranted to monitor the progress of ongoing epidemics, hence facilitating the policy-making process. However, most of the existing estimators fail to capture the time-varying nature of the fatality rate and are often biased in practice. A simple real-time fatality rate estimator with adjustment for reporting delays is proposed in this paper using the fused lasso technique. This approach is easy to use and can be broadly applied to public health practice as only basic epidemiological data are required. A large-scale simulation study suggests that the proposed estimator is a reliable benchmark for formulating public health policies during an epidemic with high accuracy and sensitivity in capturing the changes in the fatality rate over time, while the other two commonly-used case fatality rate estimators may convey delayed or even misleading signals of the true situation. The application to the COVID-19 data in Germany between January 2020 and January 2022 demonstrates the importance of the social restrictions in the early phase of the pandemic when vaccines were not available, and the beneficial effects of vaccination in suppressing the fatality rate to a low level since August 2021 irrespective of the rebound in infections driven by the more infectious Delta and Omicron variants during the fourth wave.


Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/331593
ISSN
2023 Impact Factor: 3.8
2023 SCImago Journal Rankings: 0.900
ISI Accession Number ID

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorQu, Yuanke-
dc.contributor.authorLee, Chun Yin-
dc.contributor.authorLam, K F-
dc.date.accessioned2023-09-21T06:57:13Z-
dc.date.available2023-09-21T06:57:13Z-
dc.date.issued2022-10-31-
dc.identifier.citationScientific Reports, 2022, v. 12, n. 1-
dc.identifier.issn2045-2322-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/331593-
dc.description.abstract<p>An accurate estimator of the real-time fatality rate is warranted to monitor the progress of ongoing epidemics, hence facilitating the policy-making process. However, most of the existing estimators fail to capture the time-varying nature of the fatality rate and are often biased in practice. A simple real-time fatality rate estimator with adjustment for reporting delays is proposed in this paper using the fused lasso technique. This approach is easy to use and can be broadly applied to public health practice as only basic epidemiological data are required. A large-scale simulation study suggests that the proposed estimator is a reliable benchmark for formulating public health policies during an epidemic with high accuracy and sensitivity in capturing the changes in the fatality rate over time, while the other two commonly-used case fatality rate estimators may convey delayed or even misleading signals of the true situation. The application to the COVID-19 data in Germany between January 2020 and January 2022 demonstrates the importance of the social restrictions in the early phase of the pandemic when vaccines were not available, and the beneficial effects of vaccination in suppressing the fatality rate to a low level since August 2021 irrespective of the rebound in infections driven by the more infectious Delta and Omicron variants during the fourth wave.<br></p>-
dc.languageeng-
dc.publisherNature Research-
dc.relation.ispartofScientific Reports-
dc.rightsThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.-
dc.titleA novel method to monitor COVID-19 fatality rate in real-time, a key metric to guide public health policy-
dc.typeArticle-
dc.identifier.doi10.1038/s41598-022-23138-4-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-85140941783-
dc.identifier.volume12-
dc.identifier.issue1-
dc.identifier.eissn2045-2322-
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000877140500025-
dc.identifier.issnl2045-2322-

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