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Article: Future trajectory of respiratory infections following the COVID-19 pandemic in Hong Kong

TitleFuture trajectory of respiratory infections following the COVID-19 pandemic in Hong Kong
Authors
Issue Date2023
Citation
Chaos, 2023, v. 33, n. 1, article no. 013124 How to Cite?
AbstractThe accumulation of susceptible populations for respiratory infectious diseases (RIDs) when COVID-19-targeted non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were in place might pose a greater risk of future RID outbreaks. We examined the timing and magnitude of RID resurgence after lifting COVID-19-targeted NPIs and assessed the burdens on the health system. We proposed the Threshold-based Control Method (TCM) to identify data-driven solutions to maintain the resilience of the health system by re-introducing NPIs when the number of severe infections reaches a threshold. There will be outbreaks of all RIDs with staggered peak times after lifting COVID-19-targeted NPIs. Such a large-scale resurgence of RID patients will impose a significant risk of overwhelming the health system. With a strict NPI strategy, a TCM-initiated threshold of 600 severe infections can ensure a sufficient supply of hospital beds for all hospitalized severely infected patients. The proposed TCM identifies effective dynamic NPIs, which facilitate future NPI relaxation policymaking.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/330901
ISSN
2023 Impact Factor: 2.7
2023 SCImago Journal Rankings: 0.778
ISI Accession Number ID

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorCheng, Weibin-
dc.contributor.authorZhou, Hanchu-
dc.contributor.authorYe, Yang-
dc.contributor.authorChen, Yifan-
dc.contributor.authorJing, Fengshi-
dc.contributor.authorCao, Zhidong-
dc.contributor.authorZeng, Daniel Dajun-
dc.contributor.authorZhang, Qingpeng-
dc.date.accessioned2023-09-05T12:15:45Z-
dc.date.available2023-09-05T12:15:45Z-
dc.date.issued2023-
dc.identifier.citationChaos, 2023, v. 33, n. 1, article no. 013124-
dc.identifier.issn1054-1500-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/330901-
dc.description.abstractThe accumulation of susceptible populations for respiratory infectious diseases (RIDs) when COVID-19-targeted non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were in place might pose a greater risk of future RID outbreaks. We examined the timing and magnitude of RID resurgence after lifting COVID-19-targeted NPIs and assessed the burdens on the health system. We proposed the Threshold-based Control Method (TCM) to identify data-driven solutions to maintain the resilience of the health system by re-introducing NPIs when the number of severe infections reaches a threshold. There will be outbreaks of all RIDs with staggered peak times after lifting COVID-19-targeted NPIs. Such a large-scale resurgence of RID patients will impose a significant risk of overwhelming the health system. With a strict NPI strategy, a TCM-initiated threshold of 600 severe infections can ensure a sufficient supply of hospital beds for all hospitalized severely infected patients. The proposed TCM identifies effective dynamic NPIs, which facilitate future NPI relaxation policymaking.-
dc.languageeng-
dc.relation.ispartofChaos-
dc.titleFuture trajectory of respiratory infections following the COVID-19 pandemic in Hong Kong-
dc.typeArticle-
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltext-
dc.identifier.doi10.1063/5.0123870-
dc.identifier.pmid36725657-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-85146969015-
dc.identifier.volume33-
dc.identifier.issue1-
dc.identifier.spagearticle no. 013124-
dc.identifier.epagearticle no. 013124-
dc.identifier.eissn1089-7682-
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000917936100004-

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