Evaluating the Impact of Vaccination on COVID-19 Pandemic Used a Hierarchical Weighted Contact Network Model

Abstract

The 2019 Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) vaccines have been placed significant expectation to end the COVID-19 pandemic sooner. However, issues related to vaccines still need to be resolved urgently, including the vaccination number and range. In this paper, we proposed an epidemic spread model based on the hierarchical weighted network. This model fully considers the heterogeneity of the community social contact network and the epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 in China, which enables to evaluate the potential impact of vaccine efficacy, vaccination schemes, and mixed interventions on the epidemic. The results show that a mass vaccination can effectively control the epidemic but cannot completely eliminate it. In the case of limited resources, giving vaccination priority to the individuals with high contact intensity in the community is necessary. Joint implementation with non-pharmacological interventions strengthening the control of virus transmission. The results provide insights for decision-makers with effective vaccination plans and prevention and control programs.