A real-world data validation of the value of early-stage SIR modelling to public health

Abstract

Performance of Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model in the early stage of a novel epidemic may be hindered by data availability. Additionally, the traditional SIR model may oversimplify the disease progress, and knowledge about the virus and transmission is limited early in the epidemic, resulting in a greater uncertainty of such modelling. We aimed to investigate the impact of model inputs on the early-stage SIR projection using COVID-19 as an illustration to evaluate the application of early infection models. We constructed a modified SIR model using discrete-time Markov chain to simulate daily epidemic dynamics and estimate the number of beds needed in Wuhan in the early stage of COVID-19 epidemic. We compared eight scenarios of SIR projection to the real-world data (RWD) and used root mean square error (RMSE) to assess model performance. According to the National Health Commission, the number of beds occupied in isolation wards and ICUs due to COVID-19 in Wuhan peaked at 37,746. In our model, as the epidemic developed, we observed an increasing daily new case rate, and decreasing daily removal rate and ICU rate. This change in rates contributed to the growth in the needs of bed in both isolation wards and ICUs. Assuming a 50% diagnosis rate and 70% public health efficacy, the model based on parameters estimated using data from the day reaching 3200 to the day reaching 6400 cases returned a lowest RMSE. This model predicted 22,613 beds needed in isolation ward and ICU as on the day of RWD peak. Very early SIR model predictions based on early cumulative case data initially underestimated the number of beds needed, but the RMSEs tended to decline as more updated data were used. Very-early-stage SIR model, although simple but convenient and relatively accurate, is a useful tool to provide decisive information for the public health system and predict the trend of an epidemic of novel infectious disease in the very early stage, thus, avoiding the issue of delay-decision and extra deaths.