Estimating High-Resolution PM<inf>2.5</inf> Concentrations by Fusing Satellite AOD and Smartphone Photographs Using a Convolutional Neural Network and Ensemble Learning

Abstract

Aerosol optical depth (AOD) data derived from satellite products have been widely used to estimate fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations. However, existing approaches to estimate PM2.5 concentrations are invariably limited by the availability of AOD data, which can be missing over large areas due to satellite measurements being obstructed by, for example, clouds, snow cover or high concentrations of air pollution. In this study, we addressed this shortcoming by developing a novel method for determining PM2.5 concentrations with high spatial coverage by integrating AOD-based estimations and smartphone photograph-based estimations. We first developed a multiple-input fuzzy neural network (MIFNN) model to measure PM2.5 concentrations from smartphone photographs. We then designed an ensemble learning model (AutoELM) to determine PM2.5 concentrations based on the Collection-6 Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction AOD product. The R2 values of the MIFNN model and AutoELM model are 0.85 and 0.80, respectively, which are superior to those of other state-of-the-art models. Subsequently, we used crowdsourced smartphone photographs obtained from social media to validate the transferability of the MIFNN model, which we then applied to generate smartphone photograph-based estimates of PM2.5 concentrations. These estimates were fused with AOD-based estimates to generate a new PM2.5 distribution product with broader coverage than existing products, equating to an average increase of 12% in map coverage of PM2.5 concentrations, which grows to an impressive 25% increase in map coverage in densely populated areas. Our findings indicate that the robust estimation accuracy of the ensemble learning model is due to its detection of nonlinear correlations and high-order interactions. Furthermore, our findings demonstrate that the synergy of smartphone photograph-based estimations and AOD-based estimations generates significantly greater spatial coverage of PM2.5 distribution than AOD-based estimations alone, especially in densely populated areas where more smartphone photographs are available.