Inter-seasonality of influenza in Australia

Abstract

Background: It appears inter-seasonal influenza notifications have been increasing in summer months in Australia. This study aims to determine changes in inter-seasonal influenza activity in Australia over time. Methods: Routine influenza surveillance data and hospitalisations data were analysed to study the epidemiology of inter-seasonal influenza and to examine the impact of inter-seasonal influenza on morbidity in Australia at a national level. To adjust for changes in testing over time, we calculated a ratio of summer-to-winter notifications for each year in the study. A P-value of <0.05 was used for statistical significance. Results: Nationally, 18 933 notifications were reported during summer months from December to February 2005-2016. There have been increasing summer notifications over time, which corresponded to similarly increased notifications in winter. A significant upward trend was observed for rate of notification during summer period over these years, P < 0.01. However, the ratio of summer-to-winter notifications demonstrated that while notifications have increased, the ratio has not increased markedly over the years and did not show a significant trend. No seasonal trend in rates of hospitalisation for influenza and pneumonia, respiratory and circulatory diagnosis was observed over the studied years. Conclusion: This study provides a clearer understanding of the epidemiology and burden of inter-seasonal influenza and trends over time in Australia. The ratio of summer-to-winter notifications remains relatively constant and is supported by reasonably constant hospitalisation rates over the years.