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Article: Meteorological factors and COVID-19 incidence in 190 countries: An observational study

TitleMeteorological factors and COVID-19 incidence in 190 countries: An observational study
Authors
KeywordsCOVID-19 incidence
COVID-19 mortality
Meteorology
Relative humidity
Temperature
Wind speed
Issue Date2021
Citation
Science of the Total Environment, 2021, v. 757, article no. 143783 How to Cite?
AbstractNovel corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which first emerged in December 2019, has become a pandemic. This study aimed to investigate the associations between meteorological factors and COVID-19 incidence and mortality worldwide. This study included 1,908,197 confirmed cases of and 119,257 deaths from COVID-19 from 190 countries between 23 January and 13 April, 2020. We used a distributed lag non-linear model with city-/country-level random intercept to investigate the associations between COVID19 incidence and daily temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed. A series of confounders were considered in the analysis including demographics, socioeconomics, geographic locations, and political strategies. Sensitivity analyses were performed to examine the robustness of the associations. The COVID-19 incidence showed a stronger association with temperature than with relative humidity or wind speed. An inverse association was identified between the COVID-19 incidence and temperature. The corresponding 14-day cumulative relative risk was 1.28 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.20–1.36] at 5 °C, and 0.75 (95% CI, 0.65–0.86) at 22 °C with reference to the risk at 11 °C. An inverse J-shaped association was observed between relative humidity and the COVID-19 incidence, with the highest risk at 72%. A higher wind speed was associated with a generally lower incidence of COVID-19, although the associations were weak. Sensitivity analyses generally yielded similar results. The COVID-19 incidence decreased with the increase of temperature. Our study suggests that the spread of COVID-19 may slow during summer but may increase during winter.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/324158
ISSN
2023 Impact Factor: 8.2
2023 SCImago Journal Rankings: 1.998
ISI Accession Number ID

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorGuo, Cui-
dc.contributor.authorBo, Yacong-
dc.contributor.authorLin, Changqing-
dc.contributor.authorLi, Hao Bi-
dc.contributor.authorZeng, Yiqian-
dc.contributor.authorZhang, Yumiao-
dc.contributor.authorHossain, Md Shakhaoat-
dc.contributor.authorChan, Jimmy W.M.-
dc.contributor.authorYeung, David W.-
dc.contributor.authorKwok, Kin on-
dc.contributor.authorWong, Samuel Y.S.-
dc.contributor.authorLau, Alexis K.H.-
dc.contributor.authorLao, Xiang Qian-
dc.date.accessioned2023-01-13T03:01:54Z-
dc.date.available2023-01-13T03:01:54Z-
dc.date.issued2021-
dc.identifier.citationScience of the Total Environment, 2021, v. 757, article no. 143783-
dc.identifier.issn0048-9697-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/324158-
dc.description.abstractNovel corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which first emerged in December 2019, has become a pandemic. This study aimed to investigate the associations between meteorological factors and COVID-19 incidence and mortality worldwide. This study included 1,908,197 confirmed cases of and 119,257 deaths from COVID-19 from 190 countries between 23 January and 13 April, 2020. We used a distributed lag non-linear model with city-/country-level random intercept to investigate the associations between COVID19 incidence and daily temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed. A series of confounders were considered in the analysis including demographics, socioeconomics, geographic locations, and political strategies. Sensitivity analyses were performed to examine the robustness of the associations. The COVID-19 incidence showed a stronger association with temperature than with relative humidity or wind speed. An inverse association was identified between the COVID-19 incidence and temperature. The corresponding 14-day cumulative relative risk was 1.28 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.20–1.36] at 5 °C, and 0.75 (95% CI, 0.65–0.86) at 22 °C with reference to the risk at 11 °C. An inverse J-shaped association was observed between relative humidity and the COVID-19 incidence, with the highest risk at 72%. A higher wind speed was associated with a generally lower incidence of COVID-19, although the associations were weak. Sensitivity analyses generally yielded similar results. The COVID-19 incidence decreased with the increase of temperature. Our study suggests that the spread of COVID-19 may slow during summer but may increase during winter.-
dc.languageeng-
dc.relation.ispartofScience of the Total Environment-
dc.subjectCOVID-19 incidence-
dc.subjectCOVID-19 mortality-
dc.subjectMeteorology-
dc.subjectRelative humidity-
dc.subjectTemperature-
dc.subjectWind speed-
dc.titleMeteorological factors and COVID-19 incidence in 190 countries: An observational study-
dc.typeArticle-
dc.description.naturelink_to_subscribed_fulltext-
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143783-
dc.identifier.pmid33257056-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-85097051276-
dc.identifier.volume757-
dc.identifier.spagearticle no. 143783-
dc.identifier.epagearticle no. 143783-
dc.identifier.eissn1879-1026-
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000604432900061-

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