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- Publisher Website: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143783
- Scopus: eid_2-s2.0-85097051276
- PMID: 33257056
- WOS: WOS:000604432900061
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Article: Meteorological factors and COVID-19 incidence in 190 countries: An observational study
Title | Meteorological factors and COVID-19 incidence in 190 countries: An observational study |
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Authors | |
Keywords | COVID-19 incidence COVID-19 mortality Meteorology Relative humidity Temperature Wind speed |
Issue Date | 2021 |
Citation | Science of the Total Environment, 2021, v. 757, article no. 143783 How to Cite? |
Abstract | Novel corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which first emerged in December 2019, has become a pandemic. This study aimed to investigate the associations between meteorological factors and COVID-19 incidence and mortality worldwide. This study included 1,908,197 confirmed cases of and 119,257 deaths from COVID-19 from 190 countries between 23 January and 13 April, 2020. We used a distributed lag non-linear model with city-/country-level random intercept to investigate the associations between COVID19 incidence and daily temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed. A series of confounders were considered in the analysis including demographics, socioeconomics, geographic locations, and political strategies. Sensitivity analyses were performed to examine the robustness of the associations. The COVID-19 incidence showed a stronger association with temperature than with relative humidity or wind speed. An inverse association was identified between the COVID-19 incidence and temperature. The corresponding 14-day cumulative relative risk was 1.28 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.20–1.36] at 5 °C, and 0.75 (95% CI, 0.65–0.86) at 22 °C with reference to the risk at 11 °C. An inverse J-shaped association was observed between relative humidity and the COVID-19 incidence, with the highest risk at 72%. A higher wind speed was associated with a generally lower incidence of COVID-19, although the associations were weak. Sensitivity analyses generally yielded similar results. The COVID-19 incidence decreased with the increase of temperature. Our study suggests that the spread of COVID-19 may slow during summer but may increase during winter. |
Persistent Identifier | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/324158 |
ISSN | 2023 Impact Factor: 8.2 2023 SCImago Journal Rankings: 1.998 |
ISI Accession Number ID |
DC Field | Value | Language |
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dc.contributor.author | Guo, Cui | - |
dc.contributor.author | Bo, Yacong | - |
dc.contributor.author | Lin, Changqing | - |
dc.contributor.author | Li, Hao Bi | - |
dc.contributor.author | Zeng, Yiqian | - |
dc.contributor.author | Zhang, Yumiao | - |
dc.contributor.author | Hossain, Md Shakhaoat | - |
dc.contributor.author | Chan, Jimmy W.M. | - |
dc.contributor.author | Yeung, David W. | - |
dc.contributor.author | Kwok, Kin on | - |
dc.contributor.author | Wong, Samuel Y.S. | - |
dc.contributor.author | Lau, Alexis K.H. | - |
dc.contributor.author | Lao, Xiang Qian | - |
dc.date.accessioned | 2023-01-13T03:01:54Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2023-01-13T03:01:54Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2021 | - |
dc.identifier.citation | Science of the Total Environment, 2021, v. 757, article no. 143783 | - |
dc.identifier.issn | 0048-9697 | - |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/324158 | - |
dc.description.abstract | Novel corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which first emerged in December 2019, has become a pandemic. This study aimed to investigate the associations between meteorological factors and COVID-19 incidence and mortality worldwide. This study included 1,908,197 confirmed cases of and 119,257 deaths from COVID-19 from 190 countries between 23 January and 13 April, 2020. We used a distributed lag non-linear model with city-/country-level random intercept to investigate the associations between COVID19 incidence and daily temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed. A series of confounders were considered in the analysis including demographics, socioeconomics, geographic locations, and political strategies. Sensitivity analyses were performed to examine the robustness of the associations. The COVID-19 incidence showed a stronger association with temperature than with relative humidity or wind speed. An inverse association was identified between the COVID-19 incidence and temperature. The corresponding 14-day cumulative relative risk was 1.28 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.20–1.36] at 5 °C, and 0.75 (95% CI, 0.65–0.86) at 22 °C with reference to the risk at 11 °C. An inverse J-shaped association was observed between relative humidity and the COVID-19 incidence, with the highest risk at 72%. A higher wind speed was associated with a generally lower incidence of COVID-19, although the associations were weak. Sensitivity analyses generally yielded similar results. The COVID-19 incidence decreased with the increase of temperature. Our study suggests that the spread of COVID-19 may slow during summer but may increase during winter. | - |
dc.language | eng | - |
dc.relation.ispartof | Science of the Total Environment | - |
dc.subject | COVID-19 incidence | - |
dc.subject | COVID-19 mortality | - |
dc.subject | Meteorology | - |
dc.subject | Relative humidity | - |
dc.subject | Temperature | - |
dc.subject | Wind speed | - |
dc.title | Meteorological factors and COVID-19 incidence in 190 countries: An observational study | - |
dc.type | Article | - |
dc.description.nature | link_to_subscribed_fulltext | - |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143783 | - |
dc.identifier.pmid | 33257056 | - |
dc.identifier.scopus | eid_2-s2.0-85097051276 | - |
dc.identifier.volume | 757 | - |
dc.identifier.spage | article no. 143783 | - |
dc.identifier.epage | article no. 143783 | - |
dc.identifier.eissn | 1879-1026 | - |
dc.identifier.isi | WOS:000604432900061 | - |