One China, two realities : cross-strait relations and the barriers of unification between China's mainland and Taiwan = 一個中國, 兩個現實 : 中國大陸與台灣的兩岸關係和統一的障礙

Abstract

The future of the Taiwan Strait has long been, and continues to be, a question facing political scientists, military leaders, elected officials, and heads of state. The consequences of the future of Taiwan is not simply a question for the nearly 24 million people who call the island home, but for the two superpowers, the United States and People’s Republic of China, who have staked their Pacific foreign policy on their own vision for the future of Taiwan. Like any issue that has the potential to lead to armed conflict between nuclear armed nations, a global spotlight shines on the Taiwan Strait. This study analyzes whether any one of the three actors involved in the issue — the People’s Republic of China, the Republic of China, and the United States — shoulder the majority of the responsibility of the current deterioration of trilateral relations. Through a study of the frequency of selected keywords related to the conflict, this research illustrates how and why trilateral relations have shown a marked downturn over the last ten years. The key findings indicate a clear distinction in how each region covers the conflict through local media as well as highlight how real-world events shape the increase in tension. This study concludes that the ROC plays the preeminent role in shaping the relationship. Sharp changes in ROC’s domestic political rhetoric is likely to affect the outlook of the conflict more than shifts from the two other actors. This study will outline how that dynamic shapes the future of the issue and how to best avoid armed conflict going forward.