Urban hydrological responses to climate change and urbanization in cold climates

Abstract

This study explores hydrological response of urban catchment in Southern Finland to climate change and urbanization. Process-based urban hydrological modelling and statistical analysis are applied to various urbanization and climate scenarios. Future changes in precipitation and temperature under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively) clearly influence urban streamflow all year-round. We found snowpack shrinks during 2061 to 2090, snowmelt becomes earlier and the amount of melted runoff is reduced under both climate scenarios. The most significant runoff increase occurs in winter with the growth rates of 79% and 127%, respectively. It is also found that the dominant portion of urban streamflow shifts from summer to autumn in the future under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Results indicate that urbanization has direct impact on hydrological response due to the change of imperviousness, but climate change will have more significant impact on seasonal distribution of urban streamflow. Additionally, urbanization impacts shrink monthly streamflow differences along with climate change.