Geographic Pattern of Typhoid Fever in India: A Model-Based Estimate of Cohort and Surveillance Data

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Typhoid fever remains a major public health problem in India. Recently, the Surveillance for Enteric Fever in India program completed a multisite surveillance study. However, data on subnational variation in typhoid fever are needed to guide the introduction of the new typhoid conjugate vaccine in India. METHODS: We applied a geospatial statistical model to estimate typhoid fever incidence across India, using data from 4 cohort studies and 6 hybrid surveillance sites from October 2017 to March 2020. We collected geocoded data from the Demographic and Health Survey in India as predictors of typhoid fever incidence. We used a log linear regression model to predict a primary outcome of typhoid incidence. RESULTS: We estimated a national incidence of typhoid fever in India of 360 cases (95% confidence interval [CI], 297-494) per 100 000 person-years, with an annual estimate of 4.5 million cases (95% CI, 3.7-6.1 million) and 8930 deaths (95% CI, 7360-12 260), assuming a 0.2% case-fatality rate. We found substantial geographic variation of typhoid incidence across the country, with higher incidence in southwestern states and urban centers in the north. CONCLUSIONS: There is a large burden of typhoid fever in India with substantial heterogeneity across the country, with higher burden in urban centers.