File Download
There are no files associated with this item.
Supplementary
-
Citations:
- Appears in Collections:
Article: Time-varying transmission heterogeneity of SARS and COVID-19 in Hong Kong
Title | Time-varying transmission heterogeneity of SARS and COVID-19 in Hong Kong |
---|---|
Authors | |
Issue Date | 2022 |
Citation | 2022 How to Cite? |
Abstract | Transmission heterogeneity is a notable feature of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemics, though previous efforts to estimate how heterogeneity changes over time are limited. Using contact tracing data, we compared the epidemiology of SARS and COVID-19 infection in Hong Kong in 2003 and 2020-21 and estimated time-varying transmission heterogeneity (kt) by fitting negative binomial models to offspring distributions generated across variable observation windows. kt fluctuated over time for both COVID-19 and SARS on a continuous scale though SARS exhibited significantly greater (p < 0.001) heterogeneity compared to COVID-19 overall and in-time. For COVID-19, kt declined over time and was significantly associated with increasingly stringent non-pharmaceutical interventions though similar evidence for SARS was inconclusive. Underdetection of sporadic COVID-19 cases led to a moderate overestimation of kt, indicating COVID-19 heterogeneity of could be greater than observed. Time-varying or real-time estimates of transmission heterogeneity could become a critical indicator for epidemic intelligence in the future. |
Persistent Identifier | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/314230 |
DC Field | Value | Language |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.author | Adam, DC | - |
dc.contributor.author | Gostic, K | - |
dc.contributor.author | Tsang, KLT | - |
dc.contributor.author | Wu, P | - |
dc.contributor.author | Lim, WW | - |
dc.contributor.author | Yeung, A | - |
dc.contributor.author | Wong, YT | - |
dc.contributor.author | Lau, EHY | - |
dc.contributor.author | Du, Z | - |
dc.contributor.author | Chen, D | - |
dc.date.accessioned | 2022-07-18T06:14:10Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2022-07-18T06:14:10Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2022 | - |
dc.identifier.citation | 2022 | - |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10722/314230 | - |
dc.description.abstract | Transmission heterogeneity is a notable feature of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemics, though previous efforts to estimate how heterogeneity changes over time are limited. Using contact tracing data, we compared the epidemiology of SARS and COVID-19 infection in Hong Kong in 2003 and 2020-21 and estimated time-varying transmission heterogeneity (kt) by fitting negative binomial models to offspring distributions generated across variable observation windows. kt fluctuated over time for both COVID-19 and SARS on a continuous scale though SARS exhibited significantly greater (p < 0.001) heterogeneity compared to COVID-19 overall and in-time. For COVID-19, kt declined over time and was significantly associated with increasingly stringent non-pharmaceutical interventions though similar evidence for SARS was inconclusive. Underdetection of sporadic COVID-19 cases led to a moderate overestimation of kt, indicating COVID-19 heterogeneity of could be greater than observed. Time-varying or real-time estimates of transmission heterogeneity could become a critical indicator for epidemic intelligence in the future. | - |
dc.language | eng | - |
dc.title | Time-varying transmission heterogeneity of SARS and COVID-19 in Hong Kong | - |
dc.type | Article | - |
dc.identifier.email | Adam, DC: dcadam@hku.hk | - |
dc.identifier.email | Tsang, KLT: matklab@hku.hk | - |
dc.identifier.email | Wu, P: pengwu@hku.hk | - |
dc.identifier.email | Lim, WW: wwen@connect.hku.hk | - |
dc.identifier.email | Wong, YT: wongytj@hku.hk | - |
dc.identifier.email | Lau, EHY: ehylau@hku.hk | - |
dc.identifier.email | Du, Z: zwdu@hku.hk | - |
dc.identifier.authority | Tsang, KLT=rp02571 | - |
dc.identifier.authority | Wu, P=rp02025 | - |
dc.identifier.authority | Lau, EHY=rp01349 | - |
dc.identifier.authority | Du, Z=rp02777 | - |
dc.identifier.hkuros | 334180 | - |