Development of on-road emission inventory and evaluation of policy intervention on future emission reduction toward sustainability in Vietnam

Abstract

Abstract This study developed updated emission inventories for 2010, 2015, and 2019 base-year for road transportation in Vietnam with future projections for 2020, 2025, and 2030. In general (2019 base-year), motorcycles contributed a substantial CO, NMVOC, PM10, PM2.5, OC, and CH4 (~53%–89%), while BC, NOx, and SO2 were mostly from diesel-powered trucks (~42%–76.3%). The countrywide emission contributions from two rapidly growing cities (Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh [HCM]) were estimated to be 11%–16.2% and 16.6%–20.2%, respectively, and CO2 was found to be the leading pollutant that contributes to the overall Global Warming Potential (41% of CO2e) in Vietnam. In terms of future emission projections, the suggested or planned policy interventions (i.e., banning motorcycles, improved fuel quality, introducing electric vehicles, and public transportation) are expected to lead to 11%–125% (compared to Business As Usual) emission reductions in 2030, pushing Vietnam a step toward environmental sustainability.