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Article: Modelling the impact of travel restrictions on COVID-19 cases in Hong Kong in early 2020

TitleModelling the impact of travel restrictions on COVID-19 cases in Hong Kong in early 2020
Authors
KeywordsCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)
Border restriction
Susceptible exposed infectious recovered (SEIR) model
Issue Date2021
PublisherBioMed Central Ltd. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.biomedcentral.com/bmcpublichealth/
Citation
BMC Public Health, 2021, v. 21 n. 1, p. article no. 1878 How to Cite?
AbstractBackground: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) led to pandemic that affected almost all countries in the world. Many countries have implemented border restriction as a public health measure to limit local outbreak. However, there is inadequate scientific data to support such a practice, especially in the presence of an established local transmission of the disease. Objective: To apply a metapopulation Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model with inspected migration to investigate the effect of border restriction as a public health measure to limit outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019. Methods: We apply a modified metapopulation SEIR model with inspected migration with simulating population migration, and incorporating parameters such as efficiency of custom inspection in blocking infected travelers in the model. The population sizes were retrieved from government reports, while the number of COVID-19 patients were retrieved from Hong Kong Department of Health and China Centre for Disease Control (CDC) data. The R0 was obtained from previous clinical studies. Results: Complete border closure can help to reduce the cumulative COVID-19 case number and mortality in Hong Kong by 13.99% and 13.98% respectively. To prevent full occupancy of isolation facilities in Hong Kong; effective public health measures to reduce local R0 to below 1.6 was necessary, apart from having complete border closure. Conclusions: Early complete travel restriction is effective in reducing cumulative cases and mortality. However, additional anti-COVID-19 measures to reduce local R0 to below 1.6 are necessary to prevent COVID-19 cases from overwhelming hospital isolation facilities.
Persistent Identifierhttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/307906
ISSN
2023 Impact Factor: 3.5
2023 SCImago Journal Rankings: 1.253
PubMed Central ID
ISI Accession Number ID
Errata

 

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorKwok, WC-
dc.contributor.authorWong, CK-
dc.contributor.authorMa, TF-
dc.contributor.authorHo, KW-
dc.contributor.authorFan, LWT-
dc.contributor.authorChan, KPF-
dc.contributor.authorChan, SSK-
dc.contributor.authorTam, TCC-
dc.contributor.authorHo, PL-
dc.date.accessioned2021-11-12T13:39:37Z-
dc.date.available2021-11-12T13:39:37Z-
dc.date.issued2021-
dc.identifier.citationBMC Public Health, 2021, v. 21 n. 1, p. article no. 1878-
dc.identifier.issn1471-2458-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10722/307906-
dc.description.abstractBackground: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) led to pandemic that affected almost all countries in the world. Many countries have implemented border restriction as a public health measure to limit local outbreak. However, there is inadequate scientific data to support such a practice, especially in the presence of an established local transmission of the disease. Objective: To apply a metapopulation Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model with inspected migration to investigate the effect of border restriction as a public health measure to limit outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019. Methods: We apply a modified metapopulation SEIR model with inspected migration with simulating population migration, and incorporating parameters such as efficiency of custom inspection in blocking infected travelers in the model. The population sizes were retrieved from government reports, while the number of COVID-19 patients were retrieved from Hong Kong Department of Health and China Centre for Disease Control (CDC) data. The R0 was obtained from previous clinical studies. Results: Complete border closure can help to reduce the cumulative COVID-19 case number and mortality in Hong Kong by 13.99% and 13.98% respectively. To prevent full occupancy of isolation facilities in Hong Kong; effective public health measures to reduce local R0 to below 1.6 was necessary, apart from having complete border closure. Conclusions: Early complete travel restriction is effective in reducing cumulative cases and mortality. However, additional anti-COVID-19 measures to reduce local R0 to below 1.6 are necessary to prevent COVID-19 cases from overwhelming hospital isolation facilities.-
dc.languageeng-
dc.publisherBioMed Central Ltd. The Journal's web site is located at http://www.biomedcentral.com/bmcpublichealth/-
dc.relation.ispartofBMC Public Health-
dc.rightsBMC Public Health. Copyright © BioMed Central Ltd.-
dc.rightsThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.-
dc.subjectCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-
dc.subjectBorder restriction-
dc.subjectSusceptible exposed infectious recovered (SEIR) model-
dc.titleModelling the impact of travel restrictions on COVID-19 cases in Hong Kong in early 2020-
dc.typeArticle-
dc.identifier.emailHo, PL: plho@hku.hk-
dc.identifier.authorityHo, PL=rp00406-
dc.description.naturepublished_or_final_version-
dc.identifier.doi10.1186/s12889-021-11889-0-
dc.identifier.pmid34663279-
dc.identifier.pmcidPMC8522545-
dc.identifier.scopuseid_2-s2.0-85117597022-
dc.identifier.hkuros329801-
dc.identifier.volume21-
dc.identifier.issue1-
dc.identifier.spagearticle no. 1878-
dc.identifier.epagearticle no. 1878-
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000708474700008-
dc.publisher.placeUnited Kingdom-
dc.relation.erratumdoi:10.1186/s12889-021-12157-x-
dc.relation.erratumeid:eid_2-s2.0-85119428825-

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